003
FXUS61 KBTV 241826
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
226 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
1. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
2. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A BEAUTIFUL START TO THE WEEKEND SO FAR TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION. THE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS,
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY HEAVY FROST BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. TOMORROW WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY,
THOUGH SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT LATER IN THE DAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE
AGAIN DROP TO AROUND 30% TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY, MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND THROUGH OUR AREA ON
MONDAY, BRINGING MAINLY INCREASING CLOUDS AS IT DOES SO. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND THE VERY
DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS, EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SPRINKLES,
IF ANYTHING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT,
USHERING IN ANOTHER COOL AND DRY AIRMASS. WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES; TUESDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY GET INTO THE 40S TO
LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERHEAD
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND OUR TUESDAY COLD FRONT HELPING TO EXTEND OUR
DRY PERIOD FOR MANY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
ALSO HELP TO REBOUND OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE THE LOW TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S BY FRIDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE WEEK, BUT IT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND UNABLE TO
BREAK US FROM THIS DRY PATTERN. OF NOTE IN THE ENSEMBLISTIC
GUIDANCE, BOTH THE GEFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES SHOW ONLY A 30-40% CHANCE
FOR A CUMULATIVE INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
WHILE THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
DAYS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEXT WEEK, PREVAILING WIND
CONDITIONS LOOK TOO LIGHT TO NOTE ANY SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
RIGHT NOW. THAT SAID, CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
COULD SEE TRENDS TOWARDS MARGINAL CRITICAL WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH
ANY CERTAINTY, BUT THURSDAY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING
FORWARD FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PACKAGE. LIGHT AND MAINLY
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE
GRADUALLY TURNING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW, WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE WIDER VALLEYS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR
BTV/PBG/SLK. RUT MAY ALSO SEE A TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE
WIND, BEFORE ALSO TURNING PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PACKAGE. HAVE DENOTED A 6SM BR AT MPV, BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM
LAST NIGHT WHICH FEATURED INTERMITTENT FOG. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG
REMAINS LOW DUE TO DETACHMENT FROM FOG. OTHERWISE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT IS LOW TO 0%.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
ROUTINE OBSERVATIONS FROM KSLK ASOS ARE UNAVAILABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. WHILE THE SITE IS OPERATING, IT IS NOT ABLE TO
DISSEMINATE OBSERVATIONS NORMALLY AT THIS TIME. TECHNICIANS ARE
AWARE OF THE ISSUE, BUT TIME OF RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HASTINGS
DISCUSSION...HASTINGS/DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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