973
FXUS61 KBTV 261720
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 927 AM EDT MONDAY...
SMALL FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING. TWEAKS TO INCREASE WINDS ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING AND FOR THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH ARE WARMING
FASTER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 216 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
2. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 216 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A PLETHORA OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH, IF NOT ALL, RAINFALL FROM MAKING IT INTO
THE DEEPER VALLEYS. STILL, ANY LOCATION THAT DOES RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY WILL SEE WELL UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH AND WILL ONLY BE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING
TO NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. FOR EXAMPLE, WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TODAY BUT
SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN VERMONT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WARM
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO
BE SEASONABLY WARM, WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH EXCEPTION
OF BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AS COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS WELL. ALL TERMINALS WILL
TREND BACK TO VFR BY 00Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES, INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS SHIFT
TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND MAY BE GUSTY AT BTV AND PBG
WITH CHANNELED FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
ROUTINE OBSERVATIONS FROM KSLK ASOS ARE UNAVAILABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. WHILE THE SITE IS OPERATING, IT IS NOT ABLE TO
DISSEMINATE OBSERVATIONS NORMALLY AT THIS TIME. TECHNICIANS ARE
AWARE OF THE ISSUE, BUT TIME OF RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...KREMER/CLAY
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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