320
FXUS61 KBTV 270135
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
935 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 243 PM EDT MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 PM EDT MONDAY...
1. BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR TOWARDS MID WEEK.
2. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, THEN MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS A NARROW MOISTURE
CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE ENDED UP
BEING VIRGA, SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO PICK UP A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. BY AND LARGE
HOWEVER, MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE
RAIN FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN VERMONT WHERE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-15 DEGREES. A FEW PLACES ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS,
INCLUDING JAY PEAK, COULD A FEW SPRINKLES THOUGH DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ADVECTING SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING FROM CANADA. AS NOCTURNAL COOLING
BEGINS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE IN THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UP TO 25 MPH OR SO BETWEEN 7-10 PM. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS CALM THEREAFTER. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL COOL TO THE
UPPER 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HOVERING AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK IN THE WIDER VALLEYS; COLDEST LOCATIONS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. TOMORROW WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES WITH CONTINUED COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
APPROACH SOME RECORDS FOR MONTPELIER AND ST. JOHNSBURY, WITH RECORDS
ELSEWHERE RESIDING IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OR LOWER. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LOW 20S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTH
WINDS HELP TO MODERATE OUR PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LOW CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA. WITH CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA, NOT A LOT OF STRONG FORCING WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF
WE HAVE PRECIPITATION, IT WILL BE LIGHT. THEN WE ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME
MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
NOT A LOT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THAT TIMEFRAME AT THIS POINT.
.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS MANIFESTED AS
SOME SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR
AS DRY AIR SWEEPS IN BY 02Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS OR SO THROUGH 06Z BEFORE THE
GRADIENT RELAXES. NW TO N FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
ROUTINE OBSERVATIONS FROM KSLK ASOS ARE UNAVAILABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. WHILE THE SITE IS OPERATING, IT IS NOT ABLE TO
DISSEMINATE OBSERVATIONS NORMALLY AT THIS TIME. TECHNICIANS ARE
AWARE OF THE ISSUE, BUT TIME OF RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...NEILES/DANZIG
AVIATION...BOYD
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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