989
FXUS61 KBUF 261733
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
133 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND
MOST OF THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN THIS
WEEKEND WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA, AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR, BUT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL RIDGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE WARMER, WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE IT WILL ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 30S. THEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE, OR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND A
PARTIAL CLEARING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ZONAL. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN INITIAL SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS
WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WELL OUT AHEAD OF
THIS LOW...A SURFACE WARM FRONT/ TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT... WHERE IT WILL THEN
GENERALLY LINGER IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
BETWEEN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS THE CONDUIT FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO WEAK
EASTWARD-PROPAGATING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURGES OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION (AND CATEGORICAL POPS) ALONG AND TO ITS NORTH.
MEANWHILE TO ITS SOUTH PRECIPITATION SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE
SHOWERY...PARTICULARLY DURING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE KEY TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AS THIS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL/TYPE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
THIS SAID...PINNING DOWN ITS EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS
RATHER PROBLEMATIC AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...AS OUR REGION WILL LIE
DIRECTLY WITHIN THE BATTLEGROUND BETWEEN WARMER AIR TRYING TO ADVECT
IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COLDER
AIR FIRMLY ANCHORED NEAR JAMES BAY. COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
TRENDED A LITTLE BIT STRONGER WITH THE INITIAL EMBEDDED WEAK WAVE OR
TWO OF LOW PRESSURE AND IS THUS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SHUNTING THE BOUNDARY AT LEAST A BIT BACK SOUTHWARD
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF SAID WAVES. THAT
STATED...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE BOUNDARY
PERSIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.
ALL OF THIS TRANSLATES INTO A SIGNIFICANT FORECAST BUST POTENTIAL...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE THE
DEMARCATION LINE BETWEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND TEMPS
IN THE 30S/40S TO ITS NORTH...AND MORE SHOWERY PRECIP AND TEMPS IN
THE 60S TO ITS SOUTH. FOR NOW THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A
MARKED NORTH-SOUTH DICHOTOMY IN TEMPERATURES (AND TO A SOMEWHAT
LESSER EXTENT) PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH
THIS LIKELY NEEDING FURTHER REFINEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. FOR WESTERN NEW YORK THE
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF
JUST PLAIN RAIN...WHILE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION APPEARS MORE
LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN ON THE NORTH (AND
COLDER) SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE CONTINUED TO CALL THE
LATTER JUST A PLAIN RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...
HOWEVER SOME FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY A SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS CORRESPONDINGLY
ORGANIZING AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND/OR
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST
SOUTH (COLDEST) AND ECMWF THE FURTHEST NORTH (WARMEST) AMONGST THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL PACKAGES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE AIMED MORE TOWARD
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WITH A
FAIRLY LARGE BUST POTENTIAL CONTINUING WITH THESE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY GIVEN THE ONGOING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LOW TRACK AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE POSITIONING OF THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER
UNSETTLED... WITH FAIRLY HIGH PCPN POTENTIAL (LIKELY POPS)
PERSISTING RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD
COME IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER MIX ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ARRIVAL OF SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW MAY ALSO PRESENT
THE RISK FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH
COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF APRIL.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
ROUGHLY THROUGH 21Z FOR MOST TAF SITES, AND 23Z AT KART. THESE
WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VSBY (1/2SM TO 2SM)
AND MVFR CIGS AT OUR TAF SITES. SNOW SHOWERS TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY,
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY REQUIRE A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
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