086
FXUS61 KBUF 280640
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
240 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED
WEATHER THAT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA...WE CAN
EXPECT A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS...WITH THIS GREATEST ON SATURDAY WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF THIS WRITING THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY ASSOCIATED
PCPN HAS CLEARED OUR AREA. IN ITS WAKE WE CAN EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND INTO THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FRIDAY, WHILE A
LARGE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL HELP
PUSH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING WELL EAST OF THE LOW TOWARD
WESTERN NY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS BY LATE
IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING. ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
WESTWARD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A VERY UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A WNW TO ESE FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND, WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH TIME. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE DOWN THE FRONTAL ZONE, WITH EACH ONE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION. STRONG AND PERSISTENT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL ALSO INTRODUCE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN TO
NORTHERN NY, AND POSSIBLY A MORE BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A PERSISTENT DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHEN FRONTOGENSIS, WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTAL WAVES RUNNING DOWN THE BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING ASCENT.
THE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO NORTHWARD.
FARTHER SOUTH ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, EXPECT MUCH LOWER
COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LOCK INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MAY CONTAIN
SOME SNOW FRIDAY EVENING, AFTER THAT, WARMING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER, AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT THE NYS
ROUTE 3 CORRIDOR FROM WATERTOWN TO HARRISVILLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, AND LIKELY FORCE THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
TO SAG SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. THIS WILL BRING THE STEADY
PRECIP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND MAY DROP ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE ACROSS NIAGARA, ORLEANS, AND MONROE
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, THE RISK OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW
WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OMNIPRESENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ENDING
THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AS WELL OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE FREEZING RAIN TO
RAIN.
THIS SETUP WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN NY. THE LARGEST
RISK AREA WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF OUR CWA, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT, IMPACTFUL ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY. IF FREEZING RAIN MATERIALIZES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, EXPECT
AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH LOWER, GIVEN THE MORE BRIEF TIME WINDOW AND MORE
MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
THERE WILL BE A STARK CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH
HIGH BUST POTENTIAL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. EXPECT 30S TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 20S NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER), AND
60S TO THE SOUTH (AND EVEN 70S NEAR THE PA STATE LINE). THE FRONTAL
ZONE MAY DRIFT NORTH AND SOUTH SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS FOR CITIES
ALONG THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRAG ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS
PEAKING EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE 50S. THIS BEING SAID, EXPECT A SWATH
OF RAIN TO PASS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP TO BELOW FREEZING, SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ADVECTING IN SOME DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE NEGATIVE LOW TEENS CELSIUS AT
850MB MONDAY NIGHT, THE DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT ANY LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST.
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, INTRODUCING THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM TO THE AREA.
WHILE THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING FAIR DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS.
ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST...WHILE BROAD
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT SNAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN A SIMILAR MANNER ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE LOWER
VFR RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO MVFR/SPOTTY IFR SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARING (BUT NOT QUITE
REACHING) LAKE ONTARIO BY THE START OF SATURDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND A MIX OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEING
AN INITIAL MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET EARLY FRIDAY EVENING QUICKLY CHANGE
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. BEHIND THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...THE
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO LOWER-END VFR. THIS BEING SAID...AN ADVANCING LOW
LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS WITHIN THE
BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME VFR LINGERING SOUTH OF KIAG-KROC
DURING AT LEAST PART OF SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN WINDS
OVERNIGHT, WITH A BRIEF (6-12 HOUR) PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO. THESE HEADLINES WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO QUIETER
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE FRESHENING
EASTERLIES DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THESE MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FOR LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JM/JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/HSK/JM/JJR
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