215
FXUS61 KBUF 280839
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
439 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER
THAT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAINLY A MIX
OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR AREA...WE CAN EXPECT
A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES BOTH WEEKEND DAYS...
WITH THIS GREATEST ON SATURDAY WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS STATES ELONGATES AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE LOW WILL SNAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH THIS BOUNDARY REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ALONG THE NOSE OF AN
ADVANCING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS TO
OUR AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANCES REACHING
THE HIGH LIKELY TO MID-CATEGORICAL RANGE (70-90%) BY THE HOUR BEFORE
SUNSET. OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT A DECENT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 40 NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES.
TONIGHT A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY RIPPLE
EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND IN THE PROCESS WILL
HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH IT NEARING (BUT NOT QUITE REACHING) THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY THE START OF SATURDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WAVES
WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH AN ADVANCING LOW LEVEL JET TO PROVIDE
ENHANCED PERIODS OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE
MAIN FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL ALSO ONLY TIGHTEN OVER TIME AS STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR JAMES BAY ALSO CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL COLDER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD AT THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. ALL OF
THIS WILL ADD UP TO A CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WITH THERMAL
PROFILES WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT JUST PLAIN RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS THE
INCIPIENT COLDER AIRMASS THERE WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL MIX OF SNOW
AND SLEET EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT QUICKLY FORCES A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
WHICH WILL THEN LAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY...OWING TO A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SUB-
FREEZING AIR THAT SHOULD BECOME ENTRENCHED THERE.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT THE STEADIER RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT...
LIKELY ALLOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. OTHERWISE AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND WITHIN THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR...WITH AREAS
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO (HELLO DUNKIRK)
LIKELY SEEING READINGS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S AS WE
PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SLOWLY SHUNTED BACK TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TO ITS NORTH STRENGTHENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
JEFFERSON COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR FREEZING
TO SUB-FREEZING AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE THERE.
MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS TO START
THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF WHAT SHOULD BE A LAKE ERIE LAKE SHADOW ALSO
SUPPORTING A RISK FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.
GIVEN THE STARK THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A MASSIVE NORTH TO SOUTH DICHOTOMY IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS LIKELY RANGING FROM
AROUND FREEZING NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE INTO THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVING A VERY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH
WILL LIE VERY NEAR THE EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION...AND WHERE JUST A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE FRONTAL POSITION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER OR COLDER TEMPERATURES
THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...THAT DAY WILL ALSO LIKELY FEATURE A PERIOD
OF FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE...EVEN WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING THAT ANY MIXING
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AT BEST. CURRENTLY HAVE A PERIOD OF 30-40
MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY FROM NEAR/JUST
INLAND OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BUFFALO
AREA...WHERE THE PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
INDUCE SOME LOCALIZED COOLER TEMPS (LOWER 50S) COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THEREBY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LAKE SHADOW.
FINALLY...WITH RESPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...
THESE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OR SO OF JEFFERSON COUNTY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL ICING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...THIS RESULTS IN CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTAL ICE
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO JUST UNDER A HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOUND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND LEWIS COUNTY. SUCH AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...AND WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CONTINUE
THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY WHILE ALSO
ADDING AN ADVISORY FOR LEWIS COUNTY FOR NOW. THIS BEING SAID...THERE
REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE THAT HIGHER (AND MORE IMPACTFUL...
WARNING-LEVEL) ICE AMOUNTS THAN THIS COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO AN ICE STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MENTORED AS WE
PUSH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT DRAPED
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND POINTS EASTWARD. STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL INITIALLY PUSH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT, COLD, NORTHEAST FLOW MAY DROP
IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE COMMUNITIES TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT ICING HERE. WILL HAVE JUST A
CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN HERE, WITH PLAIN RAIN THE PREDOMINATE P-
TYPE. THIS SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO DIMINISH THE
INTENSITY OF ICING WITHIN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH, BUT LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE NEAR LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
BY SUNDAY A DEEPER SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST, AND DEPARTURE OF THE
BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH NORTHWARD, POSSIBLY SUCH THAT AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 40S FOR THE SLV. THIS WILL END THE
FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL TOLD SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE, POSSIBLY MORE FOR
THE SLV, IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACROSS WNY, THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES BETTER DEFINED,
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE AFTERNOON MAY BECOME MORE SPARSE WITH THE
SHOWER COVERAGE. BASIN AVERAGE QPF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
RANGE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH FOR WNY, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IT WILL REMAIN MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT TO OUR WEST MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. MUCAPE VALUES
200 TO 500 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WNY, IN ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
SHARPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE CONCERN WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A STRONG LLJ AROUND 50 TO 55 KNOTS 2-3K FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HIGHLIGHTING PRIMARILY THE WESTERN ZONES OF NYS, AS NOTED BY THE
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SPC'S DAY 3
OUTLOOK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRAG ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MIDDAY MONDAY. THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS
ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT LYING JUST TO OUR
WEST TO START MONDAY. MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S TO START THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
EARLY THUNDERSTORM AROUND WILL BE REPLACED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ADVECTING IN SOME DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE AT 850 HPA MONDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY DOWN TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS, THE DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL QUICKLY END
ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY, EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST.
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, INTRODUCING THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM TO THE AREA.
WHILE THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE OFF TO
OUR EAST...WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES EXTENDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
SNAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL USHER THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
IN A SIMILAR MANNER ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE
LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE LOWER VFR RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND TO MVFR/SPOTTY IFR SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARING (BUT NOT QUITE REACHING) LAKE
ONTARIO BY THE START OF SATURDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND ATTENDANT IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AN
INITIAL MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET EARLY THIS EVENING QUICKLY CHANGE OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING
FRONT THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO LOWER-END VFR. THIS BEING SAID...AN
ADVANCING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS
WITHIN THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME VFR LINGERING SOUTH OF KIAG-KROC
DURING AT LEAST PART OF SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING AS A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY SUBSIDING
TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY 8 AM. OTHERWISE THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE US WITH UNEVENTFUL CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING.
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EASTERLIES WILL FRESHEN AGAIN
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THESE
WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR AREAS
WEST OF SODUS BAY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDING LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO.
ACROSS LAKE ERIE...A PERIOD OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES NORTH OF THAT LAKE...WITH THIS LIKELY REQUIRING
THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER ON
TODAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...EAJ/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page