592
FXUS61 KBUF 281756
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
156 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED
WEATHER THAT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR
AREA...WE CAN EXPECT A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES BOTH WEEKEND DAYS... WITH THIS GREATEST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NY WITH THICKER CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN OH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MULTIPLE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
APPROACHING UPWIND. WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S SOUTH OF
THE THRUWAY WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, EXPECTING A MUCH LARGER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES LATER TONIGHT.
TONIGHT A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY RIPPLE
EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND IN THE PROCESS WILL
HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH IT NEARING (BUT NOT QUITE REACHING) THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY THE START OF SATURDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WAVES
WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH AN ADVANCING LOW LEVEL JET TO PROVIDE
ENHANCED PERIODS OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE
MAIN FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL ALSO ONLY STRENGTHEN AND TIGHTEN OVER
TIME AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR JAMES BAY ALSO
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL COLDER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD AT THE VERY LOWEST
LEVELS. ALL OF THIS WILL ADD UP TO A CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT JUST PLAIN RAIN
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY...AS THE INCIPIENT COLDER AIRMASS THERE WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT QUICKLY FORCES A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HANG ON RIGHT
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY...
OWING TO A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SUB-FREEZING AIR THAT SHOULD BECOME
ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE THERE.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT THE STEADIER RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT...
LIKELY ALLOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF...THOUGH PROBABILITIES
FOR THIS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITHIN THE
BURGEONING WARM SECTOR...WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO (HELLO DUNKIRK) ACTUALLY SEEING READINGS CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SLOWLY SHUNTED BACK TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
ITS NORTH STRENGTHENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE...WITH AT LEAST
SOME FREEZING RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON
COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR FREEZING TO SUB-
FREEZING AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE THERE.
MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS TO START
THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF WHAT SHOULD BE A DEVELOPING LAKE ERIE LAKE
SHADOW ALSO SUPPORTING A RISK FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.
GIVEN THE INCREDIBLY STARK THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A MASSIVE NORTH TO SOUTH DICHOTOMY
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS LIKELY RANGING FROM
AROUND FREEZING NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE INTO THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVING A VERY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH
WILL LIE VERY NEAR THE EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION...AND WHERE JUST A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE FRONTAL POSITION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER OR COLDER TEMPERATURES
THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF THE NBM HAVE SEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE NBM MAXT
STANDARD DEVIATION MAXIMA FOR SATURDAY SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION NOW PLACING THE FRONT THROUGH ROCHESTER
AND NEAR THE I-90 THRUWAY.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...THAT DAY WILL ALSO LIKELY FEATURE A PERIOD
OF FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE...EVEN WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING THAT ANY MIXING
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AT BEST. CURRENTLY HAVE A PERIOD OF 30-40
MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY FROM NEAR/JUST
INLAND OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BUFFALO
AREA...WHERE THE PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
INDUCE SOME LOCALIZED COOLER TEMPS (UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S) COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THEREBY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LAKE SHADOW.
FINALLY...WITH RESPECT TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...THESE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE ON THE ORDER OF A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF JEFFERSON COUNTY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL ICING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THIS RESULTS IN CURRENT FORECAST STORM
TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO JUST UNDER A HALF AN INCH ACROSS
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOUND FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND LEWIS COUNTY. SUCH
AMOUNTS REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...AND WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES. THIS
BEING SAID...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE THAT HIGHER (AND
MORE IMPACTFUL...I.E., WARNING-LEVEL) ICE AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR...
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO AN ICE STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MENTORED AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH THE RECENT SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN FRONTAL POSITION AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL AREAS TO
MONITOR FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO EC MEMBERS
AS WELL AS NUMEROUS HI-RES SOLUTIONS THAT DROP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW, TIME DURATION MAY NOT PERSIST LONG ENOUGH FOR IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATION, BUT IF THIS TREND CONDITIONS THEN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FROM ORLEANS CO ACROSS TO OSWEGO CO
WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT DRAPED
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND POINTS EASTWARD. STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL INITIALLY PUSH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT, COLD, NORTHEAST FLOW MAY DROP
IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE COMMUNITIES TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT ICING HERE. WILL HAVE JUST A
CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN HERE, WITH PLAIN RAIN THE PREDOMINATE P-
TYPE. THIS SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO DIMINISH THE
INTENSITY OF ICING WITHIN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH, BUT LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE NEAR LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
BY SUNDAY A DEEPER SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST, AND DEPARTURE OF THE
BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH NORTHWARD, POSSIBLY SUCH THAT AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 40S FOR THE SLV. THIS WILL END THE
FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL TOLD SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE, POSSIBLY MORE FOR
THE SLV, IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACROSS WNY, THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES BETTER DEFINED,
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE AFTERNOON MAY BECOME MORE SPARSE WITH THE
SHOWER COVERAGE. BASIN AVERAGE QPF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
RANGE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH FOR WNY, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IT WILL REMAIN MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT TO OUR WEST MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. MUCAPE VALUES
200 TO 500 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WNY, IN ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
SHARPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE CONCERN WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A STRONG LLJ AROUND 50 TO 55 KNOTS 2-3K FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HIGHLIGHTING PRIMARILY THE WESTERN ZONES OF NYS, AS NOTED BY THE
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SPC'S DAY 3
OUTLOOK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRAG ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MIDDAY MONDAY. THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS
ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT LYING JUST TO OUR
WEST TO START MONDAY. MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S TO START THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
EARLY THUNDERSTORM AROUND WILL BE REPLACED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ADVECTING IN SOME DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE AT 850 HPA MONDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY DOWN TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS, THE DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL QUICKLY END
ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY, EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST.
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, INTRODUCING THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM TO THE AREA.
WHILE THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER AROUND 5-8 KFT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN NY TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF OH ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA,
DROPPING KBUF AND KJHW TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 21Z. THESE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING, BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS THAT MAY KEEP KROC IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX, ESPECIALLY AROUND
KART, WHERE SNOW INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT. ALSO INCLUDED LLWS FOR MOST TERMINALS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A STRONG LLJ WILL MOVE
IN OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY, THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS WITH DAYTIME MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME VFR LINGERING SOUTH OF KIAG-KROC
THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SHOWERS APPROACHING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EASTERLIES WILL FRESHEN AGAIN
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
THESE WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS WEST OF SODUS BAY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THROUGH
MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AND WAVES THEN SUBSIDING AGAIN
LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO.
ACROSS LAKE ERIE...A PERIOD OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES NORTH OF THAT LAKE...WITH THIS LIKELY REQUIRING
THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER ON
TODAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS/JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...EAJ/THOMAS
AVIATION...BROTHERS
MARINE...JJR
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