433
FXUS61 KBUF 281943
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
343 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED
WEATHER THAT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR
AREA...WE CAN EXPECT A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES BOTH WEEKEND DAYS... WITH THIS GREATEST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NY WITH THICKER CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN OH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MULTIPLE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
APPROACHING UPWIND. WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S SOUTH OF
THE THRUWAY WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, EXPECTING A MUCH LARGER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES LATER TONIGHT.
TONIGHT A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY RIPPLE
EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND IN THE PROCESS WILL
HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH IT NEARING (BUT NOT QUITE REACHING) THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY THE START OF SATURDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WAVES
WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH AN ADVANCING LOW LEVEL JET TO PROVIDE
ENHANCED PERIODS OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE
MAIN FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL ALSO ONLY STRENGTHEN AND TIGHTEN OVER
TIME AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR JAMES BAY ALSO
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL COLDER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD AT THE VERY LOWEST
LEVELS. ALL OF THIS WILL ADD UP TO A CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT JUST PLAIN RAIN
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY...AS THE INCIPIENT COLDER AIRMASS THERE WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT QUICKLY FORCES A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HANG ON RIGHT
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY...
OWING TO A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SUB-FREEZING AIR THAT SHOULD BECOME
ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE THERE.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT THE STEADIER RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT...
LIKELY ALLOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF...THOUGH PROBABILITIES
FOR THIS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITHIN THE
BURGEONING WARM SECTOR...WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO (HELLO DUNKIRK) ACTUALLY SEEING READINGS CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SLOWLY SHUNTED BACK TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
ITS NORTH STRENGTHENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE...WITH AT LEAST
SOME FREEZING RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON
COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR FREEZING TO SUB-
FREEZING AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE THERE.
MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS TO START
THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF WHAT SHOULD BE A DEVELOPING LAKE ERIE LAKE
SHADOW ALSO SUPPORTING A RISK FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.
GIVEN THE INCREDIBLY STARK THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A MASSIVE NORTH TO SOUTH DICHOTOMY
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS LIKELY RANGING FROM
AROUND FREEZING NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE INTO THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVING A VERY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH
WILL LIE VERY NEAR THE EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION...AND WHERE JUST A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE FRONTAL POSITION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER OR COLDER TEMPERATURES
THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF THE NBM HAVE SEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE NBM MAXT
STANDARD DEVIATION MAXIMA FOR SATURDAY SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION NOW PLACING THE FRONT THROUGH ROCHESTER
AND NEAR THE I-90 THRUWAY.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...THAT DAY WILL ALSO LIKELY FEATURE A PERIOD
OF FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE...EVEN WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING THAT ANY MIXING
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AT BEST. CURRENTLY HAVE A PERIOD OF 30-40
MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY FROM NEAR/JUST
INLAND OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BUFFALO
AREA...WHERE THE PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
INDUCE SOME LOCALIZED COOLER TEMPS (UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S) COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THEREBY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LAKE SHADOW.
FINALLY...WITH RESPECT TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...THESE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE ON THE ORDER OF A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF JEFFERSON COUNTY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL ICING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THIS RESULTS IN CURRENT FORECAST STORM
TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO JUST UNDER A HALF AN INCH ACROSS
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOUND FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND LEWIS COUNTY. SUCH
AMOUNTS REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...AND WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES. THIS
BEING SAID...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE THAT HIGHER (AND
MORE IMPACTFUL...I.E., WARNING-LEVEL) ICE AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR...
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO AN ICE STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MENTORED AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH THE RECENT SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN FRONTAL POSITION AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL AREAS TO
MONITOR FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO EC MEMBERS
AS WELL AS NUMEROUS HI-RES SOLUTIONS THAT DROP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW, TIME DURATION MAY NOT PERSIST LONG ENOUGH FOR IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATION, BUT IF THIS TREND CONDITIONS THEN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FROM ORLEANS CO ACROSS TO OSWEGO CO
WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
TO START THE PERIOD, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO,
EXTENDING EAST INTO NORTHERN NY. GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON HOW
QUICKLY THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL START TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND OUT EAST AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF QUEBEC FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY, ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT, DRIER BUT COOLER WEATHER PUSHES
INTO THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY, SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME EARLY MORNING SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH THE FRONT NEARBY, BUT IT SHOULD BE MINIMAL. AREAS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY, PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
CAN EXPECT EARLIER FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK, IF NOT POTENTIALLY FOR THE ENTIRE MORNING FOR
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES, IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION OVERALL WILL
FILL IN FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INFLUX OF
MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE ARE
CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING TROUGH AND EVENTUAL SFC LOW LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
STEADIER SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WNY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND
THEN PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
FOR MOST AREAS, BUT LESS STEADY/FREQUENT. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE APPROACH FOR THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH, AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY START TO TRANSITION TO
RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOME OF THE TYPICAL AREAS WHERE THE COLDER
AIR GETS TRAPPED WILL LIKELY HAVE A SIMILAR SETUP, SUCH AS AREAS
ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A TENTH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EVENING ON SUNDAY AND THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THAT
MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME, BUT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK
AS FAR EAST AS THE ROCHESTER METRO AREA, AND A SLIGHT RISK INTO THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT COMBINED WITH SOME
SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SFC LOW PASSING AND THE STRONG
NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NY BY AROUND DAYBREAK AND TRACK EAST
AND CLEAR THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY AROUND LUNCHTIME. AGAIN WITH
THIS SETUP THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF
AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
TRACKS EAST, BOTH SLOWING IT DOWN AND BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE
REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THEN SHOWERS AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
FRONT AND POTENTIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WILL ALSO HAVE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE SUPPORT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL, RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH
AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY WARMING AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 60 TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70, MOSTLY OCCURING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
850MB TEMPS TUMBLING INTO THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MAY KEEP A FEW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES INTO TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER
MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MOVING IN RAPIDLY AS STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY
SHUTTING OFF ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE THAT WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE WILL 'FEEL' NICE TUESDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS TO START OFF THE MONTH OF APRIL AS HIGHS ONLY CLIMB TO NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE TUG HILL/WESTERN DACKS, WITH MID AND
UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS EAST BY MID WEEK, A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO OR NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL SEND ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT LIKELIHOOD FOR
PRECIPITATION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP OR WET
SNOW ON THE FRONT END, BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME ALL LIQUID AS MUCH
WARMER RUSHES IN. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS THEN BRINGS THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT EITHER INTO OR TO JUST WEST OF OUR AREA FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT, AS IT APPEARS IT WILL SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALL OUT WHILE
AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME, MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DIFFERS SOME AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THIS ROUND. NEEDLESS TO SAY, OUR ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID THROUGH
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER AROUND 5-8 KFT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN NY TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF OH ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA,
DROPPING KBUF AND KJHW TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 21Z. THESE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING, BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS THAT MAY KEEP KROC IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX, ESPECIALLY AROUND
KART, WHERE SNOW INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT. ALSO INCLUDED LLWS FOR MOST TERMINALS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A STRONG LLJ WILL MOVE
IN OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY, THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS WITH DAYTIME MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME VFR LINGERING SOUTH OF KIAG-KROC
THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SHOWERS APPROACHING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EASTERLIES WILL FRESHEN AGAIN
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
THESE WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS WEST OF SODUS BAY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THROUGH
MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AND WAVES THEN SUBSIDING AGAIN
LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO.
ACROSS LAKE ERIE...A PERIOD OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES NORTH OF THAT LAKE...WITH THIS LIKELY REQUIRING
THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER ON
TODAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-
043.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS/JJR
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BROTHERS
MARINE...BROTHERS/JJR
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