948
FXUS61 KBUF 290817
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
417 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY...AND ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AT
POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR AREA...WE CAN EXPECT A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES BOTH WEEKEND DAYS...WITH THIS GREATEST
TODAY WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND THE COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF THIS WRITING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT JUST
SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY...WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO ITS NORTH. THE LAST COUPLE CYCLES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODELS) HAVE PICKED UP
ON THIS...AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED COLDER FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR FINGER LAKES
THROUGH THAT TIME...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A RATHER STARK TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY...THE ABOVE CHANGES WILL RESULT IN THE
COLDER TEMPS TO ITS NORTH EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAT
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH THIS PARTICULARLY THE
CASE FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO VICINITY OF FREEZING FOR AT
LEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THIS
WILL REMAIN GREATEST (CATEGORICAL POPS) FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL LIE ROUGHLY
UNDER THE 850 MB WARM FRONTAL POSITION AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
STRONGEST/TIGHTEST PORTION OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. SOUTH OF THIS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO BE
INCREASINGLY SHOWERY AND INTERMITTENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...WITH THE SHOWERS INTERSPERSED WITH SOME DRIER PERIODS.
WITH RESPECT TO PCPN TYPE...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FOR WHICH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LEWIS AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES TO COVER THE CONTINUED EXPECTED ICING...WHICH SHOULD RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LEWIS
COUNTY TO A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF
JEFFERSON COUNTY. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE
COLDER AIR WILL UNFORTUNATELY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME (ALBEIT MUCH
LIGHTER) TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STRIP OF COUNTIES BORDERING THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO (AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF GENESEE COUNTY) THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE DAYTIME ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS
LATTER AREA WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES
GIVEN THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE...EXPECT JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY
OF MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
ABOVE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ENDING AS TEMPS BEGIN
TO RISE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO SOME VERY WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID 60S
NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE...WITH LOWS TONIGHT THEN RANGING FROM THE
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER (WHICH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT)
TO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES AND
AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ON SUNDAY THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND IN THE PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...WITH
THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE
DAY. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH THE MIX OR RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARD
MAINLY RAIN AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE YET
ANOTHER DAY WITH A STARK NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE CONTRAST...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TO MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
TO START THE PERIOD, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO,
EXTENDING EAST INTO NORTHERN NY. GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON HOW
QUICKLY THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL START TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND OUT EAST AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF QUEBEC FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY, ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT, DRIER BUT COOLER WEATHER PUSHES
INTO THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY, SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME EARLY MORNING SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH THE FRONT NEARBY, BUT IT SHOULD BE MINIMAL. AREAS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY, PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
CAN EXPECT EARLIER FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK, IF NOT POTENTIALLY FOR THE ENTIRE MORNING FOR
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES, IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION OVERALL WILL
FILL IN FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INFLUX OF
MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE ARE
CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING TROUGH AND EVENTUAL SFC LOW LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
STEADIER SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WNY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND
THEN PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
FOR MOST AREAS, BUT LESS STEADY/FREQUENT. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE APPROACH FOR THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH, AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY START TO TRANSITION TO
RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOME OF THE TYPICAL AREAS WHERE THE COLDER
AIR GETS TRAPPED WILL LIKELY HAVE A SIMILAR SETUP, SUCH AS AREAS
ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A TENTH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EVENING ON SUNDAY AND THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THAT
MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME, BUT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK
AS FAR EAST AS THE ROCHESTER METRO AREA, AND A SLIGHT RISK INTO THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT COMBINED WITH SOME
SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SFC LOW PASSING AND THE STRONG
NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NY BY AROUND DAYBREAK AND TRACK EAST
AND CLEAR THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY AROUND LUNCHTIME. AGAIN WITH
THIS SETUP THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF
AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
TRACKS EAST, BOTH SLOWING IT DOWN AND BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE
REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THEN SHOWERS AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
FRONT AND POTENTIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WILL ALSO HAVE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE SUPPORT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL, RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH
AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY WARMING AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 60 TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70, MOSTLY OCCURING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
850MB TEMPS TUMBLING INTO THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MAY KEEP A FEW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES INTO TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER
MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MOVING IN RAPIDLY AS STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY
SHUTTING OFF ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE THAT WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE WILL 'FEEL' NICE TUESDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS TO START OFF THE MONTH OF APRIL AS HIGHS ONLY CLIMB TO NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE TUG HILL/WESTERN DACKS, WITH MID AND
UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS EAST BY MID WEEK, A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO OR NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL SEND ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT LIKELIHOOD FOR
PRECIPITATION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP OR WET
SNOW ON THE FRONT END, BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME ALL LIQUID AS MUCH
WARMER RUSHES IN. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS THEN BRINGS THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT EITHER INTO OR TO JUST WEST OF OUR AREA FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT, AS IT APPEARS IT WILL SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALL OUT WHILE
AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME, MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DIFFERS SOME AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THIS ROUND. NEEDLESS TO SAY, OUR ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID THROUGH
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH THIS
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THIS
EARLY MORNING.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING THIS EARLY MORNING, THAT MAY
EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INCLUDING THE KART AIRFIELD.
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE WILL
LINGER LIFR/IFR CEILINGS FOR AIRFIELDS OF KIAG AND KROC WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. AS SHOWERS FALL WITH SUBTLE WAVES ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY. ADDITIONALLY THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME COOLING OF TEMPERATURES, WITH
POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE KROC AIRFIELD, AND
POSSIBLY THE KIAG AIRFIELD.
WHILE KBUF WILL EXPERIENCE SOME IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING,
THERE LIKELY WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW THIS MORNING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD,
BEFORE WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BECOMING LOCKED IN HERE. FARTHER FROM LAKE ONTARIO
PRECIPITATION HERE SHOULD REMAIN PLAIN RAIN.
FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE KJHW AIRFIELD,
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RULE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BETWEEN 09Z AND 21Z.
A STRONG LLJ AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL PRODUCE LLWS THROUGH
THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THIS TAF CYCLE, MAINLY FOR THE WNY
TAF SITES WHEN THEY LIE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...AND RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE FOR FAR
WESTERN TAF SITES.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SHOWERS APPROACHING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
MARINE
A BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON SUNDAY AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK PUSHES BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
ACROSS LAKE ERIE...MODERATELY BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME OF THE CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR RIPLEY TO BUFFALO...SUCH THAT THIS WILL END
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ001>006-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-
043.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
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