785
FXUS61 KBUF 290819
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
419 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY...AND ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AT
POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR AREA...WE CAN EXPECT A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES BOTH WEEKEND DAYS...WITH THIS GREATEST
TODAY WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND THE COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF THIS WRITING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT JUST
SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY...WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO ITS NORTH. THE LAST COUPLE CYCLES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODELS) HAVE PICKED UP
ON THIS...AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED COLDER FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR FINGER LAKES
THROUGH THAT TIME...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A RATHER STARK TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY...THE ABOVE CHANGES WILL RESULT IN THE
COLDER TEMPS TO ITS NORTH EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAT
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH THIS PARTICULARLY THE
CASE FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO VICINITY OF FREEZING FOR AT
LEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THIS
WILL REMAIN GREATEST (CATEGORICAL POPS) FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL LIE ROUGHLY
UNDER THE 850 MB WARM FRONTAL POSITION AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
STRONGEST/TIGHTEST PORTION OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. SOUTH OF THIS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO BE
INCREASINGLY SHOWERY AND INTERMITTENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...WITH THE SHOWERS INTERSPERSED WITH SOME DRIER PERIODS.
WITH RESPECT TO PCPN TYPE...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FOR WHICH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LEWIS AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES TO COVER THE CONTINUED EXPECTED ICING...WHICH SHOULD RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LEWIS
COUNTY TO A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF
JEFFERSON COUNTY. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE
COLDER AIR WILL UNFORTUNATELY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME (ALBEIT MUCH
LIGHTER) TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STRIP OF COUNTIES BORDERING THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO (AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF GENESEE COUNTY) THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE DAYTIME ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS
LATTER AREA WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES
GIVEN THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE...EXPECT JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY
OF MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
ABOVE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ENDING AS TEMPS BEGIN
TO RISE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO SOME VERY WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID 60S
NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE...WITH LOWS TONIGHT THEN RANGING FROM THE
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER (WHICH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT)
TO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES AND
AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ON SUNDAY THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND IN THE PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...WITH
THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE
DAY. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH THE MIX OR RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARD
MAINLY RAIN AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE YET
ANOTHER DAY WITH A STARK NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE CONTRAST...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TO MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY NIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILD AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALSO
END THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. HERE ANY
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS.
BY THE START OF MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER DOWN TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING INSTABILITY INTO WNY
OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 200 TO 500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OF CONCERN IS A STRONG LLJ OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS OVERHEAD. THOUGH NOT TALL, ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. A
MODERATE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE T-STORMS REMAINS FOR WNY WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO START MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF BUFFALO AND JAMESTOWN. THUNDER THREAT WILL NOW BE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES WHERE A MILD AIRMASS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MID-DAY, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PLOWS ACROSS THE REGION. LIKE-
WISE, THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SOME 15
DEGREES COOLER LATE AFTERNOON THAN THEIR EARLIER HIGHS.
SHOWERS, BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BASIN AVERAGE QUARTER TO HALF INCH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRINGING
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
A LOOK AT THE MMEFS OF THE NAEFS AND THE GEFS STILL DEPICTS SEVERAL
CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS OUR REGION RISING TO NEAR BANKFULL MONDAY,
BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FLOOD. HIGH FLOWS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SLOW
RESPONDING CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL LINGER INTO MIDWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVECTING IN MUCH DRIER
AIR AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA TUMBLING DOWN POSSIBLY TO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS. THIS DRIER AIR OVERHEAD WILL QUICKLY END ANY
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH ANY MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OF JUST A FEW TENTHS.
AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEARS DOWN UPON OUR REGION
TUESDAY, EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
DESPITE THE SUN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF APRIL WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 30S. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE DAY
WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS SUCH THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET TO
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE, IF NOT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THOUGH DRY,
RECENT RAINS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANOTHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
INTO OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 60 TO
70 KNOT LLJ WILL BRING THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO THE REGION. THIS JET, THOUGH NOT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARMING ALOFT, MAY STILL BRING STRONG GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILL TOPS OF WNY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING UPON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT, A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
BRING BACK RAIN SHOWER THREAT FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY MAY REACH 70F IN THE GENESEE
VALLEY, WHILE A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF THE COLD LAKES WILL KEEP BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN IN THE LOWER 60S, IF NOT UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH THIS
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THIS
EARLY MORNING.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING THIS EARLY MORNING, THAT MAY
EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INCLUDING THE KART AIRFIELD.
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE WILL
LINGER LIFR/IFR CEILINGS FOR AIRFIELDS OF KIAG AND KROC WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. AS SHOWERS FALL WITH SUBTLE WAVES ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY. ADDITIONALLY THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME COOLING OF TEMPERATURES, WITH
POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE KROC AIRFIELD, AND
POSSIBLY THE KIAG AIRFIELD.
WHILE KBUF WILL EXPERIENCE SOME IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING,
THERE LIKELY WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW THIS MORNING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD,
BEFORE WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BECOMING LOCKED IN HERE. FARTHER FROM LAKE ONTARIO
PRECIPITATION HERE SHOULD REMAIN PLAIN RAIN.
FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE KJHW AIRFIELD,
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RULE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BETWEEN 09Z AND 21Z.
A STRONG LLJ AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL PRODUCE LLWS THROUGH
THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THIS TAF CYCLE, MAINLY FOR THE WNY
TAF SITES WHEN THEY LIE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...AND RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE FOR FAR
WESTERN TAF SITES.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SHOWERS APPROACHING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
MARINE
A BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON SUNDAY AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK PUSHES BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
ACROSS LAKE ERIE...MODERATELY BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME OF THE CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR RIPLEY TO BUFFALO...SUCH THAT THIS WILL END
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ001>006-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-
043.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page