598
FXUS61 KBUF 291818
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
218 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND FREEZING RAIN TO
ITS NORTH. SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WITH SOME ICING POSSIBLE EVEN IN WESTERN NEW YORK NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-
WESTERN STATES WILL MEANDER ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING SUNDAY. AT 2 P.M. THE BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM DUNKIRK TO DANSVILLE, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND IN THE 30S FROM BUFFALO TO
SYRACUSE NORTHWARD.
THIS ESTABLISHES A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE 12Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWING A WARM LAYER ALOFT OF +14C THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION OPTIONS FOR OUR AREA WILL BE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTY WHERE COLD AIR DRAINING DOWN THE VALLEY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE AREAS HAVE
ALREADY GOTTEN A QUARTER INCH OF ICE, AND WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN ICE
IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE EFFECTIVELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, WHEN ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THIS, AN ICE STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY FOR STORM TOTALS OF A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY.
IT'S A BIT WARMER ACROSS LEWIS AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES WHERE
THERE WILL BE SOME ICE TONIGHT, BUT LESS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY
BE ON VEGETATION, WITH LESS (BUT SOME) ICING ON ROADWAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ICE WILL REMAIN A RISK SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS ACROSS WESTERN
NY, AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUFFALO TO
SYRACUSE. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL ICING DURING THE DAYTIME OUTSIDE OF
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT ICE ON VEGETATION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ICING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THIS EVENING WHEN THE SUN GOES
DOWN AND ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. THIS MAY RESULT IN
A FEW ICY SPOTS ON ROADWAYS, WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON VEGETATION.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD LATE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD DUE TO LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
ON SUNDAY THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO LOWER
MICHIGAN, AND IN THE PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THIS HAPPENS, BUT THIS WILL BE
ALL RAIN EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR PART OF THE DAY.
A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SPC CLIPS FAR
WESTERN NY WITH A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK FOR SUNDAY, THIS IS FOR THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL ENGULF THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ELIMINATE THE FURTHER RISK FOR
FREEZING RAIN UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER AREA. BY MONDAY
MORNING AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. AN INITIAL
INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL DIMINISH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING, BUT LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES VIA A STRONG
40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. OVERALL TIMING IS
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE, BUT WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES THERE
COULD BE A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
IF AN ORGANIZED LINE DEVELOPS. THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK BY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ACTIVE CONVECTION INTO THOSE AREAS. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHOWERS, BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BASIN AVERAGE QUARTER TO HALF INCH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRINGING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
LATEST MMEFS OF THE NAEFS AND THE GEFS STILL DEPICTS SEVERAL CREEKS
AND RIVERS ACROSS OUR REGION RISING TO NEAR BANKFULL MONDAY, BUT
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FLOOD. HIGH FLOWS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SLOW
RESPONDING CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL LINGER INTO MIDWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVECTING IN MUCH DRIER
AIR AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA TUMBLING DOWN POSSIBLY TO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS. THIS DRIER AIR OVERHEAD WILL QUICKLY END ANY
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH ANY MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OF JUST A FEW TENTHS.
AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEARS DOWN UPON OUR REGION
TUESDAY, EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
DESPITE THE SUN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF APRIL WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 30S. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE DAY
WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS SUCH THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET TO
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE, IF NOT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THOUGH DRY,
RECENT RAINS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ANOTHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
INTO OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 60 TO
70 KNOT LLJ WILL BRING THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO THE REGION. THIS JET, THOUGH NOT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARMING ALOFT, MAY STILL BRING STRONG GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILL TOPS OF WNY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING UPON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT, A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
BRING BACK RAIN SHOWER THREAT FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY MAY REACH 70F IN THE GENESEE
VALLEY, WHILE A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF THE COLD LAKES WILL KEEP BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN IN THE LOWER 60S, IF NOT UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHARPLY DIFFERING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY WAS NEAR A KBUF TO KBGM LINE WITH VFR CIGS
AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER BRINGING AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN.
THOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN AT KIAG AND KROC
THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS MUCH BETTER CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING
RAIN AT KART.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE A BIT TONIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
KIAG, KROC, AND KART. CONDITIONS AT KBUF MORE LIKELY WILL REMAIN
IFR WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES. KJHW LIKELY REMAINS VFR. THE
RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AT KIAG,
KROC, AND KART.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...AND RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE FOR FAR WESTERN TAF
SITES.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SHOWERS APPROACHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
BECOMING WINDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING.
CONTINUED WINDY.
MARINE
A BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON SUNDAY AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK PUSHES BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ001>006-
011.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ044.
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR
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