962
FXUS61 KBUF 300639
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
239 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL SLOWLY
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...WHILE ALSO ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO MID-SPRINGLIKE
LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS MORE SHOWERS AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF THIS WRITING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THIS BOUNDARY SERVING AS THE
DEMARCATION LINE BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO ITS SOUTH AND
READINGS IN THE 30S TO ITS NORTH. THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY PCPN LIES
TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND MAINLY FROM A ROUGH KROC-KITH
AXIS NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SECOND OF TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.
REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS IS A MIX OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN FROM THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO UP THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH
PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF JEFFERSON
AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT THIS SECOND WAVE OF PCPN
TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE
BRINGING THAT AREA A CONTINUED MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH
(GREATEST ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES).
MEANWHILE...THE STEADIER PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO MORE IN THE WAY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE EXPECTED GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATER
TONIGHT (PROVIDED THIS OCCURS AS FORECAST) SHOULD HELP TO BRING AN
END TO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/ICING ACROSS THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY NUDGE
BACK NORTHWARD.
ON SUNDAY THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO
LOWER MICHIGAN, AND IN THE PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AGAIN AS A
WARM FRONT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THIS
HAPPENS, BUT THIS WILL BE ALL RAIN EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR PART OF THE DAY.
A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SPC CLIPS FAR WESTERN
NY WITH A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK FOR SUNDAY, THIS RISK IS FOR THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL ENGULF THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ELIMINATE THE FURTHER RISK FOR
FREEZING RAIN UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER AREA. BY MONDAY
MORNING AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. AN INITIAL
INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL DIMINISH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING, BUT LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES VIA A STRONG
40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. OVERALL TIMING IS
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE, BUT WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES THERE
COULD BE A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
IF AN ORGANIZED LINE DEVELOPS. THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK BY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ACTIVE CONVECTION INTO THOSE AREAS. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHOWERS, BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BASIN AVERAGE QUARTER TO HALF INCH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRINGING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
LATEST MMEFS OF THE NAEFS AND THE GEFS STILL DEPICTS SEVERAL CREEKS
AND RIVERS ACROSS OUR REGION RISING TO NEAR BANKFULL MONDAY, BUT
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FLOOD. HIGH FLOWS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SLOW
RESPONDING CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL LINGER INTO MIDWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVECTING IN MUCH DRIER
AIR AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA TUMBLING DOWN POSSIBLY TO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS. THIS DRIER AIR OVERHEAD WILL QUICKLY END ANY
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH ANY MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OF JUST A FEW TENTHS.
AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEARS DOWN UPON OUR REGION
TUESDAY, EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
DESPITE THE SUN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF APRIL WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 30S. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE DAY
WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS SUCH THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET TO
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE, IF NOT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THOUGH DRY,
RECENT RAINS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY, WHILE WELL OFF
TO THE WEST A STRONG, BUT SLOWLY WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ATTENDANT STRONG WARM
FRONT EXTENDING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO PUSH INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A POTENT 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. FORTUNATELY
THIS STRONG LLJ IS LOCATED IN THE MORE STABLE AIR, HOWEVER IT WILL
STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLTOPS
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY, THIS SAME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK
NORTHEAST PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO QUEBEC BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE SENDING ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS
GOING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST, EXPECT STEADIER SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF SOMETIME LATER THURSDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHCENTRAL NY. AT THIS POINT, APPEARS AS IF THIS MAY BRING A DRY
FINISH TO THE WORK WEEK. OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE
LINGERING TO OUR SOUTH TO START THE WEEKEND, WHILE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WAVE RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO POTENTIALLY SHIFT IT BACK NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA AS IT APPROACHES, BRINGING THE RETURN OF SHOWER
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.
STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
HIGHS THE REST OF THE TIME.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
TO LOWER MICHIGAN...A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND ADDITIONAL ICING WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG A ROUGH KIAG-KROC-KFZY AXIS...DURING SUNDAY MORNING AT
KART...AND PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY NORTH OF KART BY MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR NORTH OF THE FRONT
GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR WHERE
IT IS DRIER TO MVFR WITHIN ANY SHOWERS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT WE CAN EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH PRIMARILY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH SOME VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT...THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR...WITH MORNING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...WITH LINGERING MVFR AND
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING.
CONTINUED WINDY.
MARINE
A BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON SUNDAY AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK PUSHES BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ001>006-011.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042-
043.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR
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