527
FXUS61 KBUF 300844
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
444 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL SLOWLY
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS STATES TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WHILE ALSO
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO MID-SPRINGLIKE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM SPREADS MORE SHOWERS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL
DEEPEN AND MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. IN RESPONSE TO
THE RESULTING RENEWED PUSH OF MILDER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE
STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL
SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE FRONT REACHING AN AXIS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO A BIT NORTH OF
WATERTOWN BY THE END OF THE DAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY...THE WAVE OF STEADIER
PCPN CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING IN TANDEM WITH
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT AND TIGHTEST PORTION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. BEHIND THIS...THE RELATIVE BREAK (WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS) CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SLUG OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT...WITH THE AXIS OF
THESE PASSING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...A DRYING TREND WILL THEN OVERSPREAD FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
IN TERMS OF LINGERING FREEZING RAIN AND ICING POTENTIAL TODAY...THIS
WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FIRST WAVE OF PCPN AND AN AREA
OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING STILL LINGERING ACROSS
MUCH OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTY.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOSS OF THE STEADIER PRECIP AND GRADUAL
WARMING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST (THE FIRST SIGNS OF WHICH ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO APPEAR ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY) WILL BRING AN END TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN AND ICING FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST...WITH THIS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO END ALTOGETHER BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...THE EXISTING
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES WILL BE LEFT IN
PLACE WITH THE UPCOMING PACKAGE...THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEWIS COUNTY BY
AROUND SUNRISE.
MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STRIP OF COUNTIES BORDERING THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...TEMPS STILL CURRENTLY MOSTLY RANGE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS BEING SAID...WITH THE STEADIEST PRECIP
EXITING THESE AREAS BY PRESS TIME AND GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING...FEEL THAT THE BULK OF THE
FREEZING RAIN/ICING THREAT IN THESE AREAS HAS ENDED...AND HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA WITH
THIS PACKAGE.
OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
FOR MUCH MORE SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROUGH
BUFFALO-BATAVIA-ROCHESTER LINE SEEING HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS WITHIN THIS
REGION POSSIBLY EVER REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THIS BEING SAID...
IT WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER (HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S) RIGHT ALONG AND
INLAND FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONROE TO NIAGARA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS RIGHT ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STILL MANAGE TO KEEP HIGHS
CONFINED TO THE 30S.
MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR WESTERN
DOORSTEP BY THE START OF MONDAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...GENERALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT...WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO ALLOWING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THE GREATEST CHANCES OF WHICH
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. AM NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THESE GIVEN THE RATHER
LIMITED NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT WE DO
SEE WILL STILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A RATHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR ALL EXCEPT
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND RIGHT ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...WHERE LINGERING COLDER SURFACE AIR WILL NOT
GET COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT UNTIL MID-LATE EVENING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING, NOW FORECASTED TO BE BETWEEN BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER, WILL BE SENDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
REGION. WITH LASTEST MODEL OUTPUT NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THIS COLD
FRONT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE UPON OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES EARLY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND
OUT OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IN THE
60S, THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND LESS FARTHER TO THE WEST. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRINGING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.
LATEST MMEFS OF THE NAEFS AND THE GEFS STILL DEPICTS SEVERAL CREEKS
AND RIVERS ACROSS OUR REGION RISING TO NEAR BANKFULL MONDAY, BUT
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FLOOD. HIGH FLOWS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SLOW
RESPONDING CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL LINGER INTO MIDWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVECTING IN MUCH DRIER
AIR AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA TUMBLING DOWN TO -10 TO -12C.
THIS DRIER AIR OVERHEAD WILL QUICKLY END ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATION, WITH ANY MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO OF JUST A FEW TENTHS.
AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEARS DOWN UPON OUR REGION
TUESDAY, EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
DESPITE THE SUN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF APRIL WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 30S. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE DAY
WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS SUCH THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET TO
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE, IF NOT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THOUGH DRY,
RECENT RAINS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY, WHILE WELL OFF
TO THE WEST A STRONG, BUT SLOWLY WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ATTENDANT STRONG WARM
FRONT EXTENDING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO PUSH INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A POTENT 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. OF CONCERN
WILL BE AGAIN MODEST INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH ONLY
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS FOR WEATHER ON THURSDAY, THIS SAME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEAST PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE SENDING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN SHOWERS GOING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF OUR AREA AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST, EXPECT STEADIER
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF SOMETIME LATER THURSDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHCENTRAL NY. AT THIS POINT, APPEARS AS IF THIS MAY BRING A DRY
FINISH TO THE WORK WEEK. OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE
LINGERING TO OUR SOUTH TO START THE WEEKEND, WHILE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WAVE RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO POTENTIALLY SHIFT IT BACK NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA AS IT APPROACHES, BRINGING THE RETURN OF SHOWER
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.
STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
HIGHS THE REST OF THE TIME.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
TO LOWER MICHIGAN...A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND ADDITIONAL
ICING WILL END THIS MORNING AT KART...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
JEFFERSON COUNTY NORTH OF KART BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR NORTH OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY GIVING WAY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR WHERE IT IS DRIER TO MVFR
WITHIN ANY SHOWERS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WE CAN EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH PRIMARILY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH SOME VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT...THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR...WITH MORNING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...WITH LINGERING MVFR AND
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING.
CONTINUED WINDY.
MARINE
LEFTOVER MODERATELY BRISK EASTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY BEGINS LIFTING
BACK NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WILL LEAVE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER
TO HAMLIN BEACH TO COVER ANY LINGERING WINDS AND HIGHER WAVE
ACTION...WITH OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC WILL
THEN SWING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST ENDS OF BOTH LAKES TONIGHT...
HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVE ACTION WILL BE DIRECTED
ACROSS CANADIAN WATERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A PERIOD OF
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH THIS LIKELY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...JM/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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