197
FXUS61 KBUF 301808
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
208 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO. PERIODIC
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MUCH COLDER BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM SPREADS MORE SHOWERS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE
ICE STORM WARNING.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHWARD. A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THIS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF DIMINISHED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A NARROW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TONIGHT, AN UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH ONTARIO, WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY, FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BRING THE RISK FOR A
FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN SHOWERS IF LIGHTNING IS NOT
PRESENT. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING,
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORM WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK BY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ACTIVE CONVECTION OUT OF OUR AREA. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVECTING IN
MUCH DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA TUMBLING DOWN
TO -10 TO -12C. THIS DRIER AIR OVERHEAD WILL QUICKLY END ANY
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES. LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH ANY MEASURABLE SNOW
POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OF JUST A FEW TENTHS.
AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEARS DOWN UPON OUR REGION
TUESDAY, EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
DESPITE THE SUN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF APRIL WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 30S. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE DAY
WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS SUCH THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET TO
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE, IF NOT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THOUGH DRY,
RECENT RAINS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY, WHILE WELL OFF
TO THE WEST A STRONG, BUT SLOWLY WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ATTENDANT STRONG WARM
FRONT EXTENDING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO PUSH INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A POTENT 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. OF CONCERN
WILL BE AGAIN MODEST INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH ONLY
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS FOR WEATHER ON THURSDAY, THIS SAME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEAST PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE SENDING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN SHOWERS GOING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF OUR AREA AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST, EXPECT STEADIER
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF SOMETIME LATER THURSDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHCENTRAL NY. AT THIS POINT, APPEARS AS IF THIS MAY BRING A DRY
FINISH TO THE WORK WEEK. OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE
LINGERING TO OUR SOUTH TO START THE WEEKEND, WHILE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WAVE RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO POTENTIALLY SHIFT IT BACK NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA AS IT APPROACHES, BRINGING THE RETURN OF SHOWER
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.
STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
HIGHS THE REST OF THE TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CEILINGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR, BUT PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MVFR/VFR
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH PRIMARILY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THE EVENING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH SOME VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY, THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR...WITH MORNING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...WITH LINGERING MVFR AND
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING.
CONTINUED WINDY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC WILL
THEN SWING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST ENDS OF BOTH LAKES TONIGHT...
HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVE ACTION WILL BE DIRECTED
ACROSS CANADIAN WATERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A PERIOD OF
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH THIS LIKELY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...JM/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR
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