887
FXUS61 KBUF 301901
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
301 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO. PERIODIC
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MUCH COLDER BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM SPREADS MORE SHOWERS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE
ICE STORM WARNING.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHWARD. A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THIS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF DIMINISHED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A NARROW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TONIGHT, AN UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH ONTARIO, WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY, FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BRING THE RISK FOR A
FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN SHOWERS IF LIGHTNING IS NOT
PRESENT. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING,
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORM WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK BY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ACTIVE CONVECTION OUT OF OUR AREA. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. 850H
TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN -10C AND -12C OVERNIGHT, WHICH WHILE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS,
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH THE DGZ LYING WELL ABOVE THE
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE MAINLY EXPECTING CLOUDY
SKIES AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS OR FLURRIES WITH UP TO A TENTH OR
TWO ADDING UP BY DAYBREAK. SFC TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY CREST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ATTENDANT
SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES TUESDAY MORNING, THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH A STRETCH OF
COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S FOR MOST, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW
30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE SHORELINE TO THE TEENS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
ACTIVE WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA CLOSER TO THURSDAY
MORNING. A STRONG 55-65KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE
INITIAL WARM FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY, WITH A SECONDARY AND POTENTIALLY
STRONGER JET (NEAR 70KTS) THEN RE-EMERGING WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S WARM
SECTOR. A DEEP PLUME OF GULF-BASED MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD
OVERLAID WITH THE STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER-LEVEL COLD AIR MAY HANG ON LONG
ENOUGH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO POSSIBLY BRING SOME WET SNOW OR
WINTRY MIX TO THE HILLTOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE, THOUGH THIS SHOULD
BE SHORT-LIVED WITH LIMITED IMPACTS AS A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE STRONGER JET/PREFRONTAL
TROUGH, THOUGH PWATS WITHIN THIS AIRMASS LOOK TO CLIMB TO AROUND
1.5" WHICH COULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SOAKING RAINFALL WHERE THE
STRONGEST DEFORMATION FORCING LIES. MEDIUM-LONG RANGE RIVER
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SHARP RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON FASTER RESPONDING
BUFFALO AREA CREEKS/STREAMS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE SLOWER
RESPONDING RIVERS IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN THEREAFTER, THOUGH EVEN
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE FAVORS WATER LEVELS STAYING BELOW
BANKFULL STAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN IN THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT POSSIBLY TRANSLATING TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA PATTERN AND WEAKENING
TREND IN THE SFC-850MB LOW TO THE NORTHWEST BOTH SUGGEST LIMITED
IMPACTS, THOUGH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LLJ
WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING AS MORE OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE COMES
INTO VIEW WITH FUTURE UPDATES. AT THIS JUNCTURE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTY WINDS (>40MPH) WILL BE ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, WYOMING COUNTY, FINGER
LAKES, AND TUG HILL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE SHORELINE TO THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, AND 50S IN BETWEEN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD
THOUGH SIMILARLY VARIABLE, RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS
THE TUG HILL TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THURSDAY MORNING AS IT QUICKLY
TREKS EAST-NORTHEAST FROM AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO JUST SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY, AND WELL INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE LOW
ITSELF WEAKENING, A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT COMBINED WITH
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS.
MODELS STILL DIFFER A LITTLE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, HOWEVER
OVERALL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE FRONT AT LEAST JUST OFF TO OUR WEST
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY, THEN CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXIT EAST WITH STEADIER SHOWERS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
OVERALL AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK THAT UNSTABLE, HOWEVER WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, ESPECIALLY INLAND OF ANY LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP.
COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS IT RUNS INTO NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SECOND AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BASICALLY SANDWICHING THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS POINT, MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORS THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THAT SAME GENERAL AREA JUST TO OUR
SOUTH, WITH THE LATTER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME WOULD RESIDE TOWARD THE NY/PA LINE CLOSER
THE BOUNDARY.
GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
THE ONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BOTH START TO EXIT EAST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD NOT ONLY HELP PUMP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BUT
WOULD ALSO ALLOW THIS WEAK WAVE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER NORTH,
POSSIBLY GRAZING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY ON SATURDAY. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THERE IS A
STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL RETURN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. STAY TUNED...
OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
SEASONABLE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CEILINGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR, BUT PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MVFR/VFR
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH PRIMARILY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THE EVENING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH SOME VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY, THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR...WITH MORNING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...WITH LINGERING MVFR AND
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING.
CONTINUED WINDY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC WILL
THEN SWING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST ENDS OF BOTH LAKES TONIGHT...
HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVE ACTION WILL BE DIRECTED
ACROSS CANADIAN WATERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A PERIOD OF
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH THIS LIKELY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR
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