018
FXUS61 KBUF 310223
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1023 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO. PERIODIC
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MUCH
COLDER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY, BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS MORE SHOWERS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES BACK
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS WEAKENING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA, AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL A FEW HOURS UPSTREAM, AND WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHOWN STEADY
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, ALTHOUGH IS STILL LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
OVERNIGHT, AN UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH ONTARIO, WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY, FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BRING THE RISK FOR A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN
SHOWERS IF LIGHTNING IS NOT PRESENT. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING
INTO THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING,
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORM WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK BY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ACTIVE CONVECTION OUT OF OUR AREA. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. 850H
TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN -10C AND -12C OVERNIGHT, WHICH WHILE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS,
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH THE DGZ LYING WELL ABOVE THE
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE MAINLY EXPECTING CLOUDY
SKIES AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS OR FLURRIES WITH UP TO A TENTH OR
TWO ADDING UP BY DAYBREAK. SFC TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY CREST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ATTENDANT
SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES TUESDAY MORNING, THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH A STRETCH OF
COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S FOR MOST, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW
30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE SHORELINE TO THE TEENS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
ACTIVE WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA CLOSER TO THURSDAY
MORNING. A STRONG 55-65KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE
INITIAL WARM FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY, WITH A SECONDARY AND POTENTIALLY
STRONGER JET (NEAR 70KTS) THEN RE-EMERGING WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S WARM
SECTOR. A DEEP PLUME OF GULF-BASED MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD
OVERLAID WITH THE STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER-LEVEL COLD AIR MAY HANG ON LONG
ENOUGH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO POSSIBLY BRING SOME WET SNOW OR
WINTRY MIX TO THE HILLTOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE, THOUGH THIS SHOULD
BE SHORT-LIVED WITH LIMITED IMPACTS AS A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE STRONGER JET/PREFRONTAL
TROUGH, THOUGH PWATS WITHIN THIS AIRMASS LOOK TO CLIMB TO AROUND
1.5" WHICH COULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SOAKING RAINFALL WHERE THE
STRONGEST DEFORMATION FORCING LIES. MEDIUM-LONG RANGE RIVER
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SHARP RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON FASTER RESPONDING
BUFFALO AREA CREEKS/STREAMS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE SLOWER
RESPONDING RIVERS IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN THEREAFTER, THOUGH EVEN
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE FAVORS WATER LEVELS STAYING BELOW
BANKFULL STAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN IN THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT POSSIBLY TRANSLATING TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA PATTERN AND WEAKENING
TREND IN THE SFC-850MB LOW TO THE NORTHWEST BOTH SUGGEST LIMITED
IMPACTS, THOUGH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LLJ
WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING AS MORE OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE COMES
INTO VIEW WITH FUTURE UPDATES. AT THIS JUNCTURE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTY WINDS (>40MPH) WILL BE ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, WYOMING COUNTY, FINGER
LAKES, AND TUG HILL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE SHORELINE TO THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, AND 50S IN BETWEEN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD
THOUGH SIMILARLY VARIABLE, RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS
THE TUG HILL TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THURSDAY MORNING AS IT QUICKLY
TREKS EAST-NORTHEAST FROM AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO JUST SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY, AND WELL INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE LOW
ITSELF WEAKENING, A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT COMBINED WITH
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS.
MODELS STILL DIFFER A LITTLE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, HOWEVER
OVERALL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE FRONT AT LEAST JUST OFF TO OUR WEST
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY, THEN CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXIT EAST WITH STEADIER SHOWERS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
OVERALL AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK THAT UNSTABLE, HOWEVER WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, ESPECIALLY INLAND OF ANY LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP.
COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS IT RUNS INTO NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SECOND AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BASICALLY SANDWICHING THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS POINT, MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORS THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THAT SAME GENERAL AREA JUST TO OUR
SOUTH, WITH THE LATTER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME WOULD RESIDE TOWARD THE NY/PA LINE CLOSER
THE BOUNDARY.
GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
THE ONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BOTH START TO EXIT EAST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD NOT ONLY HELP PUMP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BUT
WOULD ALSO ALLOW THIS WEAK WAVE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER NORTH,
POSSIBLY GRAZING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY ON SATURDAY. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THERE IS A
STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL RETURN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. STAY TUNED...
OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
SEASONABLE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING. A BRIEF WINDOW OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NY. AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN SEVERAL SEGMENTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FIRST SEGMENT WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE, WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING WITH TIME
AND EASTERN EXTENT, SO THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE IN WESTERN
NY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
A FEW MORE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT.
THE SHOWERS WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY,
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS EVENING.
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL THEN
BEGIN TO PARTIALLY MIX DOWN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...WITH LINGERING MVFR AND
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING.
CONTINUED WINDY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC WILL
THEN SWING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST ENDS OF BOTH LAKES TONIGHT...
HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVE ACTION WILL BE DIRECTED
ACROSS CANADIAN WATERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A PERIOD OF
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LOZ045.
SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR
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