686
FXUS61 KBUF 311446
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1046 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES REPLACED
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHILL TO THE AIR AS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES, MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS END TUESDAY, BRIGHT
SUNSHINE WILL FILL THE SKY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, ALBEIT WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A STRONG
COLD FRONT. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY NARROW LINE OF GUSTY WINDS
OF UP TO 45 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS.
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REPLACED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ON A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND. GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, AND
AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO -10 TO -12C JUST BELOW 850 HPA, A LAKE
RESPONSE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR AND LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY WILL START WITH LAKE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
AND OVER THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF WNY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST WILL ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY DISSIPATING TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH SUNNY, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP A CHILL TO THE AIRMASS WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO TOP THE 40F MARK. THOUGH DRY, WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE, RECENT RAINFALL WILL
KEEP ANY FIRE CONCERNS LOW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT THE AXIS OF STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUIET AND DRY NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OF LATE WILL THEN COME
TO AN END DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE NEXT MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO A POSITION BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY. IN
THE PROCESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COUPLE WARM FRONTAL/ATTENDANT
LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENTS ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL THIS
OCCURS...PLENTIFUL GULF-BASED MOISTURE (PWATS OF 1-1.5 INCHES)
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONGLY LIFTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL/LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENTS...LEADING TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BEGINNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BASIN-
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RANGE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS DRAPED FROM PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND
OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST. RIVER ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SUCH AMOUNTS WOULD MERELY BE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE WITHIN-BANK RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER TIME AND A
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE LATER WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ADVISORY-
WORTHY WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
PASSING LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENTS (AN INITIAL 50-60 KNOT LLJ SEGMENT
LATER WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN STRONGER 65-70 KNOT VERSION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE WILL BE IN THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN (PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
SHORELINE)...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ITSELF...AND WITHIN THE BLACK
RIVER VALLEY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE FUNNELLING ENHANCEMENT MAY
COME INTO PLAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
MILDER TEMPERATURES AFTER TUESDAY'S CHILLY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE
MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SIMILARLY RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE LOWER-MID 50S NEAR LAKE ERIE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. DESPITE THE LOW ITSELF WEAKENING, A SECONDARY
LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT COMBINED WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MID-LATE SPRINGTIME WARMTH
ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
(WARMEST IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION). MODELS STILL DIFFER A LITTLE THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT, HOWEVER OVERALL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE FRONT AT
LEAST JUST OFF TO OUR WEST UNTIL LATE THURSDAY, WITH THE BOUNDARY
THEN CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT A GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CITY OF BUFFALO AS THE FLOW
VEERS TO 240-250 DEGREES OVER TIME. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDING OUT OF OUR AREA DURING THE
MORNING...SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER/
INTERIOR OF THE FINGER LAKES.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING...IT
THEN LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS IT RUNS
INTO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MEANWHILE...A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BASICALLY SANDWICHING THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS POINT, MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE LATTER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT
THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
RESIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY.
AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES RATHER MARKEDLY WITH REGARD
TO THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
OLD BOUNDARY. BOTH SURFACE HIGHS WILL START TO EXIT TO OUR EAST ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY HELP TO PUMP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD, BUT MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS NEXT WAVE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BRING RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES TO OUR REGION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD BLENDED GUIDANCE AND A MIX OF CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PROJECTED THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY
JUST PLAIN RAIN. AT PRESENT...EXPECT HIGHS BOTH WEEKEND DAYS TO BE
LARGELY IN THE 50S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
LOOKING A BIT FATHER OUT TO JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS PERIOD...
THERE REMAINS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
THAT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF REALIZED...SUCH A PATTERN WOULD BRING
A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT WOULD LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF REGION ALONG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, AND
EVEN IFR CEILING HEIGHTS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS ALOFT STILL IN
THE 40 KNOTS RANGE AROUND 2-3K FEET WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH
WESTERLY GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE, AND MAY PEAK CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS RIGHT WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHWEST BY THE EVENING HOURS. AS
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A HIGHER ATMOSPHERE LEVEL, AND
MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER WIND GUSTS WILL LOWER. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING WITH BASES MVFR, OR LOW END VFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...ANY MORNING MVFR LAKE CLOUDS DIMINISH, WITH THEN VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING.
CONTINUED WINDY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL PROMOTE WEST TO THEN NORTHWESTERLY GUSTY WINDS, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE LAKES AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. FOR
THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW 15-20 KNOTS BY TIME
A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TAKES PLACE, AND WILL
THUS NOT HAVE A SCA HERE AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TONIGHT,
DIMINISHING WINDS AND EVENTUALLY WAVES ON THE LAKES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE LAKES AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS QUEBEC, WITH SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JM/JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS
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