223
FXUS61 KBUF 311921
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ALONG
WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS TUESDAY, BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL FILL THE SKY THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, ALBEIT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH A WARM UP BUT MORE SHOWERY
WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH COMMON, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD INTO
THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -10 TO -12C, A MINIMAL LAKE
RESPONSE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP, MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY WILL START WITH LAKE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
AND OVER THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP A CHILL IN THE
AIR WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO TOP THE 40 DEGREE MARK.
THE AXIS OF STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUIET AND DRY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS AN INITIALLY STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHIFTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEM'S BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL FORCE A COUPLE OF WARM FRONTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH DEEP ADVECTION OF GULF-BASED MOISTURE
CAUSING PWATS TO CLIMB TO 1-1.5" WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY STARTING OUT AS A MIX
WITH WET SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COLDER AIR CIRCULATING
AROUND A DEPARTING AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAY LINGER BEFORE
BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE WARMER AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
GREATEST WHERE SFC-MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE STRONGEST ON THE NOSE OF
THE SECOND WARM FRONT, NAMELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WHERE 0.75-1.25 INCHES MAY
FALL. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS BY THURSDAY
MORNING, THOUGH EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC RIVER ENSEMBLES KEEP
RIVERS AND CREEKS WITHIN THEIR BANKS. ELSEWHERE, FORECAST BASIN-
AVERAGED QPF GENERALLY DECREASES AS ONE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THESE
AREAS, BEING CLOSER TO 0.25-0.5" ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALSO BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THIS MAY OVERLAP
WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT (65-70KTS AT 900MB) AND SHEAR
AS A STRONGER, SECONDARY LLJ SEGMENT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SMALL
CHANCE THAT THE THIS COULD BRING PORTIONS OF WNY SOME MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION, THOUGH UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND SFC INSTABILITY SHOULD
HELP LIMIT THIS RISK. THERE WILL BE A MORE TANGIBLE THREAT FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN SOME AREAS GIVEN NOT
ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED 65-70KT JET WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ALSO A
PRECEDING WEAKER 50-60KT SEGMENT THAT WILL FIRST MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, THE WEAKENING
SFC LOW AND WAA REGIME IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE DAMAGING WINDS
FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC, THOUGH LOCALIZED GUSTS 40-50MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLTOPS AND IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
BUFFALO, ROCHESTER, AND WATERTOWN METROS.
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY, TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER, THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS IT RUNS UP AGAINST A
STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER, MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NY/PA
BORDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, AND SHOWERS, TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MANAGE
TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S, POSSIBLY EVEN MID/UPPER 70S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONLY BE MODEST AND
ALLOW FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY MORNING, MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S FOR MOST, WITH SOME 40S NEAR THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORES AND LOW
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
THE RESPITE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EMERGES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVE
GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SERIES OF PHASING SHORTWAVES OVER THE NATION'S
MIDSECTION AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OUT WEST ENCOURAGING A DEEP,
PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN TO EMERGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, THE AXIS OF WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. THE GENERAL POSITION OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL
DIRECT SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND GULF-BASED MOISTURE TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A MIX OF MID/UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS.
THEREAFTER, STRONG CAA MAY CAUSE A MIX WITH WET SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRYING OUT, BEFORE MOIST-CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWS FOR CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND EVEN SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON MONDAY. WHILE BEYOND OUR
NORMAL 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY
SUGGEST THIS MUCH COLDER PATTERN REMAINING "LOCKED-IN" THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. DESPITE THE LOW ITSELF WEAKENING, A SECONDARY
LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT COMBINED WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MID-LATE SPRINGTIME WARMTH
ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
(WARMEST IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION). MODELS STILL DIFFER A LITTLE THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT, HOWEVER OVERALL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE FRONT AT
LEAST JUST OFF TO OUR WEST UNTIL LATE THURSDAY, WITH THE BOUNDARY
THEN CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT A GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CITY OF BUFFALO AS THE FLOW
VEERS TO 240-250 DEGREES OVER TIME. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDING OUT OF OUR AREA DURING THE
MORNING...SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER/
INTERIOR OF THE FINGER LAKES.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING...IT
THEN LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS IT RUNS
INTO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MEANWHILE...A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BASICALLY SANDWICHING THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS POINT, MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE LATTER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT
THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
RESIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY.
AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES RATHER MARKEDLY WITH REGARD
TO THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
OLD BOUNDARY. BOTH SURFACE HIGHS WILL START TO EXIT TO OUR EAST ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY HELP TO PUMP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD, BUT MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS NEXT WAVE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BRING RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES TO OUR REGION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD BLENDED GUIDANCE AND A MIX OF CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PROJECTED THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY
JUST PLAIN RAIN. AT PRESENT...EXPECT HIGHS BOTH WEEKEND DAYS TO BE
LARGELY IN THE 50S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
LOOKING A BIT FATHER OUT TO JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS PERIOD...
THERE REMAINS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
THAT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF REALIZED...SUCH A PATTERN WOULD BRING
A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT WOULD LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS AT
ALL TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS AT KROC.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOWERING WIND
GUSTS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING WITH
BASES MVFR, OR LOW END VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH
RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...ANY MORNING MVFR LAKE CLOUDS DIMINISH, WITH THEN VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING.
CONTINUED WINDY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
MARINE
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
WEST TO THEN NORTHWESTERLY GUSTY WINDS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ON THE LAKES AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA
RIVER WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW 15-20 KNOTS BY TIME A SUBSTANTIAL
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TAKES PLACE, AND WILL THUS NOT HAVE
A SCA HERE AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TONIGHT,
DIMINISHING WINDS AND EVENTUALLY WAVES ON THE LAKES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE LAKES AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS QUEBEC, WITH SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LOZ042-045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
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