154
FXUS61 KBUF 010222
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1022 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COLDER AIR TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER MORNING
CLOUDS TUESDAY, BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL FILL THE SKY THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY, ALBEIT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH A WARM UP BUT MORE SHOWERY
WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
EVENING. TONIGHT, AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -10 TO - 12C, A
WEAK LAKE RESPONSE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP, MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY WILL START WITH LAKE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
AND OVER THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP A CHILL IN THE
AIR WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO TOP THE 40 DEGREE MARK.
THE AXIS OF STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUIET AND DRY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS AN INITIALLY STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHIFTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEM'S BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL FORCE A COUPLE OF WARM FRONTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH DEEP ADVECTION OF GULF-BASED MOISTURE
CAUSING PWATS TO CLIMB TO 1-1.5" WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY STARTING OUT AS A MIX
WITH WET SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COLDER AIR CIRCULATING
AROUND A DEPARTING AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAY LINGER BEFORE
BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE WARMER AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
GREATEST WHERE SFC-MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE STRONGEST ON THE NOSE OF
THE SECOND WARM FRONT, NAMELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WHERE 0.75-1.25 INCHES MAY
FALL. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS BY THURSDAY
MORNING, THOUGH EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC RIVER ENSEMBLES KEEP
RIVERS AND CREEKS WITHIN THEIR BANKS. ELSEWHERE, FORECAST BASIN-
AVERAGED QPF GENERALLY DECREASES AS ONE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THESE
AREAS, BEING CLOSER TO 0.25-0.5" ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALSO BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THIS MAY OVERLAP
WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT (65-70KTS AT 900MB) AND SHEAR
AS A STRONGER, SECONDARY LLJ SEGMENT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SMALL
CHANCE THAT THE THIS COULD BRING PORTIONS OF WNY SOME MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION, THOUGH UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND SFC INSTABILITY SHOULD
HELP LIMIT THIS RISK. THERE WILL BE A MORE TANGIBLE THREAT FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN SOME AREAS GIVEN NOT
ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED 65-70KT JET WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ALSO A
PRECEDING WEAKER 50-60KT SEGMENT THAT WILL FIRST MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, THE WEAKENING
SFC LOW AND WAA REGIME IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE DAMAGING WINDS
FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC, THOUGH LOCALIZED GUSTS 40-50MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLTOPS AND IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
BUFFALO, ROCHESTER, AND WATERTOWN METROS.
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY, TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER, THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS IT RUNS UP AGAINST A
STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER, MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NY/PA
BORDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, AND SHOWERS, TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MANAGE
TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S, POSSIBLY EVEN MID/UPPER 70S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONLY BE MODEST AND
ALLOW FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY MORNING, MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S FOR MOST, WITH SOME 40S NEAR THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORES AND LOW
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
THE RESPITE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EMERGES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVE
GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SERIES OF PHASING SHORTWAVES OVER THE NATION'S
MIDSECTION AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OUT WEST ENCOURAGING A DEEP,
PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN TO EMERGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, THE AXIS OF WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. THE GENERAL POSITION OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL
DIRECT SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND GULF-BASED MOISTURE TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A MIX OF MID/UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS.
THEREAFTER, STRONG CAA MAY CAUSE A MIX WITH WET SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRYING OUT, BEFORE MOIST-CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWS FOR CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND EVEN SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON MONDAY. WHILE BEYOND OUR
NORMAL 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY
SUGGEST THIS MUCH COLDER PATTERN REMAINING "LOCKED-IN" THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PLENTY OF CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH BASES
MVFR, OR LOW END VFR. LOW END MVFR OR IFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE (KJHW/KOLE.) COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS SHOULDN'T CAUSE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING.
CONTINUED WINDY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
MARINE
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTY WINDS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE
ONTARIO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
TONIGHT, DIMINISHING WINDS AND EVENTUALLY WAVES ON THE LAKES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE LAKES AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS QUEBEC, WITH SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/THOMAS/TMA
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