620
FXUS61 KBUF 270730
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, BRINGING CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WARM TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE FROM NEAR ROCHESTER AND POINTS EAST, WITH
AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO STILL EXPERIENCING THE MOST ORGANIZED
SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADKS. NIGHTTIME SATELLITE
IS SHOWING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SWATH OF CLOUDS SLOWLY WORKING
INTO/TOWARD SW NY & FAR WESTERN NY. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW 30S OVER THE TUG HILL TO THE MID 40S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WNY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO WESTERN NY.
TODAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE A STRONGER LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN
THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO FORECAST
AREA WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO LESS
THAN 5 MPH FOR MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DIP DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, WHICH WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPERATURES
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE IN HOLDING OFF OR LIMITING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY
TUESDAY WITHIN INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PHASE, BEFORE PRIMARY MOISTURE
AXIS PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONGLY TIED TO TIMING OF THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT.
THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE COOLER, BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PHASING
SHORTWAVE PATTERN OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION WILL THEN CRAWL
EASTWARD AND LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THE WETTEST PERIOD IN THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY COME
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WHILE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY DRIER, IT
WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH CONTINUED LOW-END CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF JUST NORTH
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR SHOWERS, ALONG WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, INCLUDING FOR KART. PERIODS OF
LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS WELL. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST, THOUGH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS CANT BE RULED OUT EARLY ON, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF KROC. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THE
MID-AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY EARLIER. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. WNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT
IN FAIR WEATHER. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING LATE.
MARINE
MODERATE TO STRONG WNW FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS
VEER SOUTHWEST AND FURTHER STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY, THEN VEER NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THIS BEING THE
NEXT LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ042-045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043-044.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JM
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