796
FXUS61 KBUF 271445
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH SOME CLEARING LATE TODAY. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE BRIGHT
SUNSHINE TO WESTERN NY TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR TUESDAY, MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND
WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
PULLING AWAY LATER TODAY. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE, FULL SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO FORECAST
AREA WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO LESS
THAN 5 MPH FOR MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DIP DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, WHICH WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPERATURES
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE IN HOLDING OFF OR LIMITING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY
TUESDAY WITHIN INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PHASE, BEFORE PRIMARY MOISTURE
AXIS PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONGLY TIED TO TIMING OF THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT.
THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE COOLER, BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PHASING
SHORTWAVE PATTERN OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION WILL THEN CRAWL
EASTWARD AND LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THE WETTEST PERIOD IN THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY COME
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WHILE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY DRIER, IT
WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH CONTINUED LOW-END CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF JUST NORTH
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR SHOWERS, ALONG WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS, INCLUDING FOR KART. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA FROM
WESTERN NY INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR
SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT WINDS
WILL WEAKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WNW WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT
IN FAIR WEATHER. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING LATE.
MARINE
MODERATE TO STRONG WNW FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS
VEER SOUTHWEST AND FURTHER STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY, THEN VEER NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THIS BEING THE
NEXT LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042-
045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043-044.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/SW
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SW
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SW
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JM
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