517
FXUS61 KBUF 271702
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
102 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO THE EAST
COAST BY LATE MONDAY, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY WILL START DRY, THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. RAIN WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE TO RETURN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, FULL SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S
AREAWIDE, WITH SOME LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY, THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
MONDAY. ONGOING AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER A CHILLY
START. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, KEEPING THE LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO SHORES MUCH COOLER.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MUCH MILDER, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SSE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE TO THE LEE OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE IN HOLDING OFF OR LIMITING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY
TUESDAY WITHIN INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PHASE, BEFORE PRIMARY
MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONGLY TIED TO TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT.
THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE COOLER, BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PHASING
SHORTWAVE PATTERN OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION WILL THEN CRAWL
EASTWARD AND LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THE WETTEST PERIOD IN THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY COME
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WHILE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY DRIER, IT
WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH CONTINUED LOW-END CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF JUST NORTH
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA, WITH ANY REMAINING CLOUDS AND
MVFR CIGS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SCATTERING OUT. OTHERWISE, CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND VFR, WITH LESS WIND THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING LATE.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE ACTION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY, WITH ELEVATED WESTERLIES CONTINUING BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. IN
ADDITION, THE COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HIGHER WAVES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042-
045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043-044.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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