211
FXUS61 KBUF 272333
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
733 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO THE EAST
COAST BY LATE MONDAY, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY WILL START DRY, THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. RAIN WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MERCURY READINGS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S
OVERNIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY, THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
MONDAY. ONGOING AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER A CHILLY
START. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, KEEPING THE LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO SHORES MUCH COOLER.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MUCH MILDER, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SSE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE TO THE LEE OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ARRIVAL
TIME OF THE SYSTEM'S AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND ITS PREFRONTAL
TROUGH, WHICH STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PACKAGES LEAN ON THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY BEING AWAY FROM ANY LAKE SHADOWS AND AFTER
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, THOUGH REGARDLESS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR
COURTESY OF A 55-60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S WARM
SECTOR. THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE JET RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR LINEAR STORM MOTIONS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.
THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS REACHING FAR WESTERN NY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS. DEEP RIDGING
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH PHASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST
WILL HELP CARVE OUT A CORRESPONDING DEEP TROUGH WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A BROAD WAVE OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LOWER-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS COOL, MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST, THOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND VFR, WITH LESS WIND THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING LATE.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY, WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE ACTION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY, WITH ELEVATED WESTERLIES CONTINUING BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. IN
ADDITION, THE COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HIGHER WAVES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...AR/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...AR/HITCHCOCK
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