820
FXUS61 KBUF 281412
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1012 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
STUNNING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL...THEN AFTER A FAIR AND UNEVENTFUL NIGHT...A STRONG
COLD FRONT COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS WEATHER FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL COME BETWEEN 4 AND 9 PM. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY AND WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY WET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR FAIR DRY WEATHER TODAY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE SFC HIGH. SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK
RIBBON OF VORTICITY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FEW TO SCATTERED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TODAY, MAINLY BELOW 10 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKES, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL START EARLIER.
TONIGHT, DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SFC
HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
NEXT SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES APPROACH THE REGION, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT, CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. WIND GUSTS TO
25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
STAY DRY TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING SFC LOW AND FRONTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
TONIGHT WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
..SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PLACE THE AREA WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL
DEVELOP MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR COURTESY OF A 60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING THE POTENIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE
INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
HOWEVER, MOST LIKELY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 100 J/KG AND EXPECTED LINEAR EVOLUTION TO THE
STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) COVERING THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY, AND AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE THRUWAY WITH THIS AREA IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM LAKE SHADOWING.
THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS REACHING FAR WESTERN NY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS. DEEP RIDGING
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH PHASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST
WILL HELP CARVE OUT A CORRESPONDING DEEP TROUGH WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A BROAD WAVE OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LOWER-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS COOL, MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST, THOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK FOR FAR WESTERN
NY. HIGHER GUSTS WITH DOWNSLOPING POSSIBLE OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS STARTING AROUND 6Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LLJ PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING LATE.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS AND LOWER
WAVE ACTIONS ON THE LAKES AND RIVERS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH SCA LEVELS ON MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE RETURN
TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...PP/TMA
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW
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