265
FXUS61 KBUF 281827
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
227 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE US WITH FINE SPRING WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL
BECOME QUITE UNSETTLED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING HIGHS IN THE 50S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
..ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY
IT WILL BE A FINE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN FAIR DRY WEATHER.
IT WILL CERTAINLY BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT (SUN NT)...AS THE
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH AND A FRESHENING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. IN FACT...A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...ESP WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES. WHILE A
45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FLOW
SHOULD BE TOO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF ANY
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. REGARDLESS...WINDS ALONG THE
USUAL STRETCH OF THE NYS THRUWAY BETWEEN RIPLEY TO HAMBURG COULD
GUST TO 30-35 MPH.
IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE FORCING FROM
THIS STRONG FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 50-55KT
LOW LEVEL JET AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM BEING UNDER THE FRONT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 140KT UL JET TO PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. THE
PROBLEM...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN WESTERN NEW YORK...IS THAT A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE STORMS WITHIN THIS
FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION COULD STILL GET ROBUST WITH 40KTS OF SHEAR
PRESENTING THE RISK FOR DISCREET CELLS AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER...THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIMIT THE
REMAINING DIURNALLY INSTABILITY FOR THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
THAT BEING SAID...A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED
ALONG AND HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 22-02Z. WHILE AMPLE SHEAR
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...IT WILL BE A MATTER OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE ISSUE WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR A SHORT LIVED LAKE SHADOW FROM THE BUF METRO AREAS
NORTHEAST TO NEAR ROC. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AXIS. IN SUMMARY...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN AN
ENHANCED RISK (30% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY
POINT) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION IS THE IAG FRONTIER AND
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BECOME VERY BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND AS HIGH AS 40 MPH FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.
IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS NOT FAR
FROM 80.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS REACHING FAR WESTERN NY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS. DEEP RIDGING
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH PHASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST
WILL HELP CARVE OUT A CORRESPONDING DEEP TROUGH WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A BROAD WAVE OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LOWER-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS COOL, MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST, THOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL
BE THE RISK FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 06Z...AS 40-45 KT WINDS
AT 1000-1500 FT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
ON TUESDAY...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL COME
IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST BEING FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND COMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS AND LOWER
WAVE ACTIONS ON THE LAKES AND RIVERS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH SCA LEVELS ON MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE RETURN
TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...PP/TMA/RSH
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SW
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