065
FXUS61 KBUF 281836
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
236 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE US WITH FINE SPRING WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL
BECOME QUITE UNSETTLED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING HIGHS IN THE 50S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
..ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY
IT WILL BE A FINE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN FAIR DRY WEATHER.
IT WILL CERTAINLY BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT (SUN NT)...AS THE
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH AND A FRESHENING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. IN FACT...A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...ESP WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES. WHILE A
45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FLOW
SHOULD BE TOO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF ANY
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. REGARDLESS...WINDS ALONG THE
USUAL STRETCH OF THE NYS THRUWAY BETWEEN RIPLEY TO HAMBURG COULD
GUST TO 30-35 MPH.
IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE FORCING FROM
THIS STRONG FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 50-55KT
LOW LEVEL JET AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM BEING UNDER THE FRONT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 140KT UL JET TO PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. THE
PROBLEM...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN WESTERN NEW YORK...IS THAT A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE STORMS WITHIN THIS
FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION COULD STILL GET ROBUST WITH 40KTS OF SHEAR
PRESENTING THE RISK FOR DISCREET CELLS AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER...THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIMIT THE
REMAINING DIURNALLY INSTABILITY FOR THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
THAT BEING SAID...A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED
ALONG AND HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 22-02Z. WHILE AMPLE SHEAR
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...IT WILL BE A MATTER OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE ISSUE WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR A SHORT LIVED LAKE SHADOW FROM THE BUF METRO AREAS
NORTHEAST TO NEAR ROC. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AXIS. IN SUMMARY...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN AN
ENHANCED RISK (30% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY
POINT) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION IS THE IAG FRONTIER AND
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BECOME VERY BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND AS HIGH AS 40 MPH FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.
IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS NOT FAR
FROM 80.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING SHIFTS TO
EASTERN QUEBEC BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RAMP UP AGAIN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH A BROAD AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA
BEING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR DURING THIS
TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RECOVER TO SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH DRIER TEMPERATURES FALLING IN ITS WAKE, THOUGH THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION
FLANKED BY TWO DEEP TROUGHS MOVING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE AXIS OF THE LATTER WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, MAINTAINING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFORE THE RIDGE
NUDGES EASTWARD AND A MORE PERSISTENT DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD. STILL
A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD ON HOW EXACTLY THIS EASTERN TROUGH EVOLVES,
WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE ENCROACHING RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL
BE THE RISK FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 06Z...AS 40-45 KT WINDS
AT 1000-1500 FT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
ON TUESDAY...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL COME
IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST BEING FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND COMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS AND LOWER
WAVE ACTIONS ON THE LAKES AND RIVERS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH SCA LEVELS ON MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE RETURN
TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SW
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