636
FXUS61 KBUF 290812
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
412 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING HIGHS IN THE 50S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
..ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL
REMAINS PROBLEMATIC, AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ENTERS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN
INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION, THOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE THE MAIN
EVENT, THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ROBUST CONVECTION WITH
ELEVATED SHEAR VALUES, BRINGING AT LEAST SOME RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
DIURNALLY INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, A
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, IN THE GENERAL 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME.
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE SHADOWING FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AXIS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED AN ENHANCED RISK (30% CHANCE
OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY POINT, WITH LESSER
RISKS FOR SEVERE HAIL 15-29% AND TORNADOES 5-9%) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIVER ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS PLACE.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 MPH FOR MOST AREAS, AND AS HIGH AS 40 MPH FOR THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER. IT WILL ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THIS PERIOD. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH EARLY EVENING
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WNY
WILL SLOW OVERNIGHT COOLING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL BE THURSDAY AS THE RECENTLY PASSED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, WITH ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH SOME MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. PWAT VALUES
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT INCREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES, WITH THE +2SD
ANOMALIES OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A THURSDAY NIGHT 45 KNOT LLJ MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED UPON OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
STILL WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MONDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE HINTS THAT A CUT OFF LOW AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD LEND TO A MORE
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE
THE RISK FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AS 40-45 KT WINDS AT 1000-1500 FT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
ON TUESDAY, WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL COME
IN TWO WAVES, THE FIRST BEING FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND THE SECOND COMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER MAY INCREASE TO OVER 20 KNOTS FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE RETURN
TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/RSH/TMA
MARINE...TMA
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