525
FXUS61 KBUF 291332
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
932 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TODAY WILL RAIN FREE...BREEZY AND QUITE
MILD...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL COME FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING HIGHS IN THE 50S. UNSETTLED BUT MILD WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
...ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS PROBLEMATIC, AS
A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION, THOUGH THIS
WILL NOT BE THE MAIN EVENT, THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH ELEVATED SHEAR VALUES, BRINGING AT LEAST SOME RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
DIURNALLY INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION, IN THE GENERAL 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME.
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE SHADOWING FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AXIS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MAINTAINED AN ENHANCED RISK (30% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS
WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY POINT, WITH LESSER RISKS FOR SEVERE HAIL 15-
29% AND TORNADOES 5-9%) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS A SLIVER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS PLACE.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH FOR MOST AREAS, AND AS HIGH AS 40 MPH FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. IT WILL ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THIS PERIOD. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH EARLY EVENING
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WNY
WILL SLOW OVERNIGHT COOLING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL BE THURSDAY AS THE RECENTLY PASSED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, WITH ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH SOME MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. PWAT VALUES
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT INCREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES, WITH THE +2SD
ANOMALIES OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A THURSDAY NIGHT 45 KNOT LLJ MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED UPON OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
STILL WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MONDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE HINTS THAT A CUT OFF LOW AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD LEND TO A MORE
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL COME IN TWO WAVES, THE
FIRST BEING DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THE SECOND
COMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHORT LIVED MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION...ANY MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT AND GIVE WAY
TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING LATE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER MAY INCREASE TO OVER 20 KNOTS FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE RETURN
TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/RSH/TMA
MARINE...TMA
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