885
FXUS61 KBUF 300007
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
807 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
NOTABLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A SOLID 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THOSE FROM TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT A
WEALTH OF SUNSHINE THOUGH THAT WILL HELP TO TEMPER THE COOLER
WEATHER. A LARGE...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN ENCOURAGE
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
AS A COLD FRONT NEARS AND THEN PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...BUT GIVEN THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...DISCRETE
ORGANIZED CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INLAND AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD LAKES (ERIE/ONTARIO) THIS EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL QUICKLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
AFTER A VERY MILD NIGHT LAST NIGHT (MON NT)... TEMPS WILL TUMBLE
INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THOSE EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.
STARLIT SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO SOME CIRRUS
AND ALTO-CU OVERNIGHT...AS A DEVELOPING H925-70 BAROCLINIC ZONE (IE
WARM FRONT) WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
LASTLY...I'D LIKE TO THANK THOSE THAT HAVE FOUND MY DISCUSSIONS AND
METEOROLOGICAL INSIGHT USEFUL IN THEIR DAY TO DAY PLANNING. THESE
PAST 34 YEARS HAVE BEEN A GREAT RIDE. LOOKING FORWARD TO RETIREMENT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE ON AN INCOMING
LONGWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW DOWNPOURS MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ADVECTS NORTH AND INCREASES PWAT VALUES
TOWARDS AN INCH AND A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH, SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE BEST
LOCATION FOR THUNDER LYING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DUE TO BETTER DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL THEN LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HINTS OF A CUT OFF
LOW TO DEVELOP SUPPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS THOUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SUPPORT VFR WEATHER WITH NOTABLY
WEAKER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR WEATHER.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL BE IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE...BUT ARE SCHEDULED TO DROP OFF DURING THE
COURSE OF TONIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES LOWER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL THEN BE IN PLACE EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THESE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL AVERAGE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
SLZ022-024.
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH
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