507
FXUS61 KBUF 301357
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
957 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY, WITH
MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RECENTLY DEPARTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT THURSDAY, USHERING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING A MILD START TO MAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REDUCED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FRESH LIGHT BREEZE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 25 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED THIS
MORNING, SUPPORTED BY A RESIDUAL SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE MIXING OUT, WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
WITH EARLY EVENING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WNY WILL SLOW OVERNIGHT COOLING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, EVENTUALLY SENDING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY MID TO LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. SHEAR
PROFILES IMPROVE COURTESY OF A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL BRINGING AT LEAST A
LOW RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND THREATS INTO THE EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HINTS OF A CUT OFF
LOW TO DEVELOP SUPPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS, SUPPORTED BY A RESIDUAL SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
MIXING OUT, WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND A RETURN
TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WARM FRONT (STORM SYSTEM) THAT WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE TAF REGION AFTER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RELAXING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSING OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
EASTERLY WINDS THURSDAY WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS OF
LAKE ONTARIO, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
VEER TO SOUTHERLY AND THE GREATER WAVE HEIGHTS DRIFT INTO CANADIAN
WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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