529
FXUS61 KBUF 301752
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
152 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BRINGING A CHILLY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN WESTERN NY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RESIDUAL SHALLOW
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH 50S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. MAY 1 IS THE START OF THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
IN OUR WARMER LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND, A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONTARIO, WAYNE, NORTHERN CAYUGA, AND
OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE PROGRAM IS NOW ACTIVE, AND FROST IS MOST
LIKELY. FARTHER WEST, INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND MODEST WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
IN MOST AREAS, WITH ANY FROST SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CLIPPING FAR WESTERN NY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NY, AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND STRONGLY UPWARD, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER A COOL START.
ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE TO
MOVE MUCH MORE ACTIVE, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND STRONGER
FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PHASE/SPACE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE
SEVERE RISK WILL DECREASE WITH EASTERN EXTENT DURING THE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WANES. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTING TO DRY THINGS OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
WITH HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. SOME MODELS
ALLOW THE TROUGH TO EXIT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. OTHERWISE, A FEW MODELS DEVELOP A
CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC. IF THIS PANS OUT,
WE CAN EXPECT A WET AND ACTIVE FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY,
KEPT JUST A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL CLIP
WESTERN NY THURSDAY MORNING, AND THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH VFR STILL PREVAILING.
A MORE ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN WESTERN NY, WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 20Z THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG, WITH LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS AND HAIL.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
AREAS OF MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE
LOW, AND THIS MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ004>006-014.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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