094
FXUS61 KBUF 302351
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BRINGING A CHILLY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN WESTERN NY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THUS CHILLY
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
MAY 1 IS THE START OF THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IN OUR WARMER
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND, A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ONTARIO, WAYNE, NORTHERN CAYUGA, AND OSWEGO COUNTIES
WHERE THE PROGRAM IS NOW ACTIVE, AND FROST IS MOST LIKELY.
FARTHER WEST, INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND MODEST WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S IN MOST AREAS, WITH ANY FROST SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CLIPPING FAR WESTERN NY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NY, AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND STRONGLY
UPWARD, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER A
COOL START.
OTHER THAN A SMALL FORWARD ADJUSTMENT TO TIMING BASED ON HI-RES
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER PUSH OF
WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE TO MOVE MUCH MORE
ACTIVE, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND STRONGER FORCING IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PHASE/SPACE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE
SEVERE RISK WILL DECREASE WITH EASTERN EXTENT DURING THE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WANES. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTING TO DRY THINGS OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
WITH HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. SOME MODELS
ALLOW THE TROUGH TO EXIT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. OTHERWISE, A FEW MODELS DEVELOP A
CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC. IF THIS PANS OUT,
WE CAN EXPECT A WET AND ACTIVE FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY,
KEPT JUST A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION SHIFTS TO EASTERN QUEBEC AND NEW
ENGLAND. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY THURSDAY
MORNING, THOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD.
MORE VIGOROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIE GENERALLY WEST OF
KROC AFTER 20Z, WITH INSTABILITY LIMITING THUNDER CHANCES FURTHER
EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD HAVE LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
AREAS OF MVFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE
LOW, LIKELY PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ004>006-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/PP
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/PP
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