005
FXUS61 KBUF 010605
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
205 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BRINGING A CHILLY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN WESTERN NY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THUS CHILLY
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
MAY 1 IS THE START OF THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IN OUR WARMER
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND, A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ONTARIO, WAYNE, NORTHERN CAYUGA, AND OSWEGO COUNTIES
WHERE THE PROGRAM IS NOW ACTIVE, AND FROST IS MOST LIKELY.
FARTHER WEST, INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND MODEST WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S IN MOST AREAS, WITH ANY FROST SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CLIPPING FAR WESTERN NY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NY, AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND STRONGLY
UPWARD, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER A
COOL START.
OTHER THAN A SMALL FORWARD ADJUSTMENT TO TIMING BASED ON HI-RES
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER PUSH OF
WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE TO MOVE MUCH MORE
ACTIVE, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND STRONGER FORCING IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PHASE/SPACE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE
SEVERE RISK WILL DECREASE WITH EASTERN EXTENT DURING THE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WANES. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTING TO DRY THINGS OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
WITH HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. SOME MODELS
ALLOW THE TROUGH TO EXIT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. OTHERWISE, A FEW MODELS DEVELOP A
CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC. IF THIS PANS OUT,
WE CAN EXPECT A WET AND ACTIVE FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY,
KEPT JUST A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND, AND THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. A WARM FRONT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING MAY BRING A
SPRINKLE TO THE WESTERN TAF SITES NEAR LAKE ERIE.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY, AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO ENTER OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KIAG/KBUF AND KJHW POSSIBLY FEATURING GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY BUSTS OF RAIN. STRONGEST STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...WITH
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY REACHING KROC THIS EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH A WARM FRONT LYING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MVFR/VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FEATURE LIGHT GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDER,
IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING.
MONDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE
LOW, LIKELY PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ004>006-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOZ042.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/PP
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/PP
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