676
FXUS61 KBUF 011705
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
105 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY, BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE FIRST ROUND WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
NY LATE TODAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND HAIL THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN CHILLY AND WET WEATHER
MUCH OF THE TIME. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE FIRST OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WARM ADVECTION
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS FAR WESTERN NY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENTER WESTERN NY EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANY STORMS ROOTED ABOVE
THE SURFACE AND UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER. A NARROW
AXIS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN NY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION, AND MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR A
FEW HOURS EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PHASE/SPACE SUGGESTS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
RISK, WITH A SECONDARY LOWER RISK OF HAIL. OVERALL, THE BETTER
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PA.
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE AREA OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL WANE WITH TIME AND EASTERN EXTENT
AS DIURNAL COOLING ELIMINATES MOST OF THE INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE.
FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL LAY
OUT IN A MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTATION WITH TIME, VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. FARTHER
NORTH, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER/CENTRAL LAKES WILL SHARPEN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER MAKE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF EASTWARD PROGRESS. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE, THE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG ACROSS OUR AREA AND BECOME PRETTY
MUCH STATIONARY WHILE GRADUALLY WASHING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING,
WAVE AFTER WAVE WILL USE THIS BOUNDARY AS A CONDUIT BRINGING
ROUND AFTER ROUND SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIME. THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL RAIN ALL THE TIME, SO EXPECT
SOME PERIODS OF DRY TIME IN BETWEEN WAVES. TEMPS DIP A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, ALONG WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TREND MORE UNSETTLED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
INITIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT, WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DECAYING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND COMPLETELY WASH OUT, THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AREAS FURTHEST FROM THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A LARGE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF
AND WOBBLING ABOUT THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER NOW APPEARS SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PINWHEELING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MAY BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY PASS OVERHEAD. SIMILAR TO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF DRY TIME BUILT IN. 01/00Z
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. FURTHER BOOSTING FORECAST CONFIDENCE, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS ALSO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. BEING THAT THIS IS
QUITE THE CHANGE AND THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT...WHICH HISTORY SHOWS THAT MODELS HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH, HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHC/HIGH CHC RANGE
FOR NOW, BUT EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY KICK OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY,
HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOME ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.
IT WILL BE AN EASTWARD TRACK, BUT WILL IT BE A SLOW TREK RIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, OR WILL IT
TRAVEL A BIT NORTH OR SOUTH OF OUR REGION. EITHER WAY, LOOKS AS
THOUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF PERIODIC SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. AS MENTIONED, FORECAST MODELS MANY TIMES STRUGGLE WITH
EVOLUTION/TRACK/STRENGTH/ETC ON CUTOFF UPPER LOWS, SO STAY TUNED AS
WE GET CLOSER AND THE FINER DETAILS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY, WITH MAINLY 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS
WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING, BRINGING A
FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE
THUNDER AND SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENTER WESTERN NY EARLY THIS EVENING,
THEN CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CIGS/VSBY WILL BE VFR MOST OF THE TIME, BUT ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO LINGER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NY AND
THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY TO
PERSIST IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, EXPECT
A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR.
MARINE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE EAST, AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND MAY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT
THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE, EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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