428
FXUS61 KBUF 012354
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY, BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN CHILLY AND WET WEATHER
MUCH OF THE TIME. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENTS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING.
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE AREA OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL WANE WITH TIME AND EASTERN EXTENT
AS DIURNAL COOLING ELIMINATES MOST OF THE INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE. REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS
APPROACHING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING, ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT.
FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL LAY
OUT IN A MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTATION WITH TIME, VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. FARTHER
NORTH, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A POSITIVELY TILED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COMPLETELY CLOSE OFF AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD, THEN
MEANDER OVER THE FAR WESTERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER
AREA OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WASH OUT AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WESTERN
LOW WILL CONTINUOUSLY DRAW GULF-BASED AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING
IT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. IN ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
VERY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS, THOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS, QPF, AND
CHANCES FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTH/CENTRAL FINGER LAKES. FURTHER NORTH, A THIN WEDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY MORE PERSISTENT BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS FOR AREAS CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACT POSITION OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE BOTH
CHANCES FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES...THE OVERALL PATTERN
SHOULD RESULT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER, WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
HOLDING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY MONDAY MORNING, A CUT OFF MID-LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH ROUNDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL THEN ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SHOULD NOTE, HISTORICALLY MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WITH
THE EVOLUTION, TRACK, STRENGTH, ETC. WITH CUT OFF LOWS AND THEREFORE
WHILE CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WET PATTERN, THE EXACT DETAILS
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NY TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THORUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BOUNCE FROM IFR TO VFR IN AND OUT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NY AND
THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY TO
PERSIST IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, EXPECT
A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR.
MARINE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE EAST, AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND MAY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT
THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE, EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/HSK
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/HSK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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