020
FXUS61 KBUF 020707
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
307 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY, BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN CHILLY AND WET WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONE FINAL WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NY, AND WILL CONTINUE
MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT TAKING THE WIDESPREAD STEADIER
SHOWERS WITH IT. BETTER INSTABILITY HAS MOVED EAST, THUS SO HAS ANY
THUNDER.
FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL LAY
OUT IN A MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTATION WITH TIME, VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. FARTHER
NORTH, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A POSITIVELY TILED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COMPLETELY CLOSE OFF AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD, THEN
MEANDER OVER THE FAR WESTERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER
AREA OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WASH OUT AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WESTERN
LOW WILL CONTINUOUSLY DRAW GULF-BASED AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING
IT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. IN ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
VERY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS, THOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS, QPF, AND
CHANCES FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTH/CENTRAL FINGER LAKES. FURTHER NORTH, A THIN WEDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY MORE PERSISTENT BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS FOR AREAS CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACT POSITION OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE BOTH
CHANCES FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES...THE OVERALL PATTERN
SHOULD RESULT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER, WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
HOLDING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY MONDAY MORNING, A CUT OFF MID-LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH ROUNDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL THEN ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SHOULD NOTE, HISTORICALLY MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WITH
THE EVOLUTION, TRACK, STRENGTH, ETC. WITH CUT OFF LOWS AND THEREFORE
WHILE CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WET PATTERN, THE EXACT DETAILS
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FINAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW PRESSING EAST THROUGH WESTERN NY, AND
WILL CONTINUE EAST TAKING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
IT. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, SO NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. BETTER
INSTABILITY HAS MOVED EAST, THUS SO HAVE THE THUNDER CHANCES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD A WEAK COLD FRONT NEARING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY LAST
THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
AREAS TOWARD THE GENESEE VALLEY (KROC) AND FINGER LAKES MAY REMAIN
IN THE (LOW) VFR RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE STEADIER LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF DAYBREAK, JUST
EXPECTING CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
SO.
MOST AREAS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT SOME POINT FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY BY THIS TIME. AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING, DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES. ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND LOCALIZED WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. FURTHER INHIBITING FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN NY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BRING
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY EVENING, AND MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARD FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS (KIAG/KART) FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE FRONT WHERE CONDITIONS
MAY NOT FALL BELOW (LOW) VFR. SOLID IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH MVFR LIKELY FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SSW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT
THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
FOR THE REST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE, EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ045.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK/JM
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