333
FXUS61 KBUF 020803
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY, BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN CHILLY AND WET WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN BAY LATE
TONIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONE FINAL WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NY, AND WILL CONTINUE
MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT TAKING THE WIDESPREAD STEADIER
SHOWERS WITH IT. BETTER INSTABILITY HAS MOVED EAST, THUS SO HAS ANY
THUNDER.
FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL LAY
OUT IN A MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTATION WITH TIME, VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. FARTHER
NORTH, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ACROSS THE CORN BELT STATES
THIS PERIOD, WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THAT
IS DRAPED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TOTAL A HALF TO ONE INCH...THOUGH
LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SLV WHICH WILL LIE ON THE
NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY/PRECIPITATION
AXIS.
COOLEST DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS WILL SLOW THE
DAYTIME WARMING ALONG THE SHORELINE AND INLAND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
WHEN THE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS THE CLOSED LOW SPIRALS EASTWARD OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
MILDER PATTERN. WITH THIS MILDER PATTERN WILL COME INCREASING
INSTABILITY, THAT COUPLED WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES UNDER THE POOL
OF COLD AIR ALOFT (UPPER LEVEL LOW) DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE
ENCOURAGED, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT, WITH DRIER AIR
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIKELY DRY DAY...THOUGH PLENTY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FINAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW PRESSING EAST THROUGH WESTERN NY, AND
WILL CONTINUE EAST TAKING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
IT. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, SO NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. BETTER
INSTABILITY HAS MOVED EAST, THUS SO HAVE THE THUNDER CHANCES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD A WEAK COLD FRONT NEARING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY LAST
THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
AREAS TOWARD THE GENESEE VALLEY (KROC) AND FINGER LAKES MAY REMAIN
IN THE (LOW) VFR RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE STEADIER LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF DAYBREAK, JUST
EXPECTING CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
SO.
MOST AREAS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT SOME POINT FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY BY THIS TIME. AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING, DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES. ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND LOCALIZED WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. FURTHER INHIBITING FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN NY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BRING
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY EVENING, AND MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARD FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS (KIAG/KART) FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE FRONT WHERE CONDITIONS
MAY NOT FALL BELOW (LOW) VFR. SOLID IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH MVFR LIKELY FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SSW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT
THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
FOR THE REST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE, EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ045.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK/JM
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