978
FXUS61 KBUF 020826
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY, WHILE
AN ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NY BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP AND STALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
CHILLY AND WET WEATHER MUCH OF THE TIME. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. ONE
FINAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, TAKING THE WIDESPREAD STEADIER
SHOWERS WITH IT.
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW CROSSING QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY SAG
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY TODAY. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT DRY
TIME WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY.
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. FARTHER NORTH, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH
LOWER NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ACROSS THE CORN BELT STATES
THIS PERIOD, WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THAT
IS DRAPED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TOTAL A HALF TO ONE INCH...THOUGH
LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SLV WHICH WILL LIE ON THE
NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY/PRECIPITATION
AXIS.
COOLEST DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS WILL SLOW THE
DAYTIME WARMING ALONG THE SHORELINE AND INLAND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
WHEN THE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS THE CLOSED LOW SPIRALS EASTWARD OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
MILDER PATTERN. WITH THIS MILDER PATTERN WILL COME INCREASING
INSTABILITY, THAT COUPLED WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES UNDER THE POOL
OF COLD AIR ALOFT (UPPER LEVEL LOW) DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE
ENCOURAGED, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT, WITH DRIER AIR
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIKELY DRY DAY...THOUGH PLENTY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FINAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW PRESSING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TAKING THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE, SO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS WESTERN NY EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD A WEAK COLD FRONT NEARING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY LAST THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH AREAS TOWARD
THE GENESEE VALLEY (KROC) AND FINGER LAKES MAY REMAIN IN THE (LOW)
VFR RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE STEADIER LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF DAYBREAK, JUST EXPECTING
CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO.
MOST AREAS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY BY THIS TIME. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES. ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND LOCALIZED WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
FURTHER INHIBITING FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN NY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BRING
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING, AND MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARD FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS (KIAG/KART) FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE FRONT WHERE CONDITIONS
MAY NOT FALL BELOW (LOW) VFR. SOLID IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT, WITH
MVFR LIKELY FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TODAY. SSW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE
NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, FOR
THE REST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE, EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLIES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP ON THE
LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ045.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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