447
FXUS61 KBUF 021433
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP AND STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN CHILLY AND WET WEATHER MUCH OF
THE TIME. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
SLOWLY SAG ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY TODAY. AS THE FRONT
SAGS INTO THE AREA, EXPECTS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND THEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO
THE FINGER LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. FARTHER NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER BUT A COMPLETE DRY
FORECAST CAN'T BE GUARANTEED.
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ACROSS THE CORN BELT STATES
THIS PERIOD, WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THAT
IS DRAPED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TOTAL A HALF TO ONE INCH...THOUGH
LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SLV WHICH WILL LIE ON THE
NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY/PRECIPITATION
AXIS.
COOLEST DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS WILL SLOW THE
DAYTIME WARMING ALONG THE SHORELINE AND INLAND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
WHEN THE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS THE CLOSED LOW SPIRALS EASTWARD OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
MILDER PATTERN. WITH THIS MILDER PATTERN WILL COME INCREASING
INSTABILITY, THAT COUPLED WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES UNDER THE POOL
OF COLD AIR ALOFT (UPPER LEVEL LOW) DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE
ENCOURAGED, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT, WITH DRIER AIR
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIKELY DRY DAY...THOUGH PLENTY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING PERIODIC LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS (MVFR-IFR) THIS MORNING.
MOST AREAS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON
(EXCEPTION MAY BE HIGHER TERRAIN). AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, DO EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS, MAINLY FROM THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL
REGION. ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
INTERMITTENT AND LOCALIZED WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
FURTHER INHIBITING FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN NY BY LATE TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL BRING
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING, AND MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARD FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS (KIAG/KART) FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE FRONT WHERE CONDITIONS
MAY NOT FALL BELOW (LOW) VFR. SOLID IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT, WITH
MVFR LIKELY FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR.
MARINE
SSW WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUB-SMALL CHOPPY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLIES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP ON THE
LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR/JM
NEAR TERM...AR/JM
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/JM
MARINE...AR/JM
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