431
FXUS61 KBUF 021839
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
239 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHER TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. UNSETTLES
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR (+30 KNOTS) NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST SHOT FOR STORMS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE S.TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
RADAR AS OF 18Z IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS OCCURING. ONE AREA OF
CONVECTION TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS RIGHT NOW WORKING ENE ACROSS OHIO.
WHILE LOW AT THE MOMENT...ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT AREA ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS
OR HAIL.
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER THAT...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THERE
IS SOME INDICATION WE 'MIGHT' SEE SOME SORT OF BRIEF BREAK IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT DON'T COUNT ON ANY
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AT ALL. THAT SAID...THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE IS ADVERTISED TO SWING IN HERE SATURDAY (AFT/EVN) AS LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL...A WET AND COOL
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE NNE FLOW THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM ILLINOIS TO INDIANA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FEED
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NY. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT AS A BARRIER, AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE FORCED TO GO LATITUDINAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM ON THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
APPROACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY. THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAY
KEEP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION DRY.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS LIKELY IN THIS MOISTURE-RICH
ENVIRONMENT AND ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY EVENING BUT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
MONDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. AN
INVERTED TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE LAKE ERIE
BASIN. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ACROSS OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW AND WHILE SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SHIFT EASTWARD.
THERE IS A RISK FLOODING, MAINLY URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE IF TRAINING
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR, IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS MID-WEEK BUT NOT BEFORE THE CLOSED LOW
LUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS MILDER PATTERN WILL COME
INCREASING INSTABILITY, THAT COUPLED WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES
UNDER THE POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT (UPPER LEVEL LOW) DEEPER CONVECTION
WILL BE ENCOURAGED, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR WILL BE FOUND AT AREA TERMINALS THAT DO NOT SEE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THE BEST SHOT AT SEE STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE S.
TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND LOCALIZED
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. HOWEVER..A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO
TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN NY BY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE THIS NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BRING ABOUT LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS WITH MVFR TO IFR-LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR TO IFR/LIFR, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR, WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR TO MVFR, WITH CHANCE SHOWERS.
MARINE
SSW WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUB-SMALL CHOPPY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE
LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK/THOMAS
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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