503
FXUS61 KBUF 031800
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UNSETTLE
WEATHER TO PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST, BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY AND COOL AS DEEP MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MERCURY READING
FIRMLY IN THE 40S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT MAX T'S IN THE UPPER 40S TO A RANGE OF 50S.
TONIGHT...A STEADY STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG FORMATION,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL BE FOUND IN THE 40S
OVERNIGHT.
A LARGE LUMBERING CLOSED LOW OVER KY AND TN WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT
A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. OVERALL,
EXPECT WAVES OF SHOWERS AND 'MAYBE' SOME BRIEF DRY PERIODS AT TIMES
BUT DON'T COUNT ON IT INITIALLY. AS THE BROAD SFC LOW NEARS AREA
LATE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE 'MAY' SEE LESS COVERAGE IN SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR WNY. THIS APPEARS TO OCCUR AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE REGION GETS NUDGED NORTHWARD AND THEN A DRY WEDGE WORKS INTO THE
AREA. THAT SAID...ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO ROLL IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...NOT TO CONFIDENT (LOW) IN TERMS OF OVERALL INSTABILITY
BEING ABLE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE S. TIER. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS PLACED
A GENERAL MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A RANGE OF
50S FOR HIGHS TO LOW 60S IN SPOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS ALSO PICK UP
SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A CUTOFF LOW
PERSISTS NEAR THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWERS OR
PERIODS OF RAIN AS A WARM CONVEYOR BELT SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND SENDS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. OVERALL,
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF AN INCH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL YIELD PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD OF A THIRD TO THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH, BUT THERE IS A CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS EXCEEDING AN
INCH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE
FINALLY WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND PROGRESSING OFF TO THE EAST
BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSING OVERHEAD, FOLLOWED BY SOME
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
UNFORTUNATELY, RIGHT ON ITS HEELS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OUT THE STALLED UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AND
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER WITH SIGNS
OF IMPROVEMENT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN LESSENING AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOLID IFR AND LIFR TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AS AS STEADY STEAM OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.
TONIGHT...NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE
IFR AND LIFR CIGS AND LOWER VSBY WITH SOME FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR TO IFR, RAIN LIKELY. AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE S. TIER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR, WITH SHOWERS. A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR TO MVFR, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKES TO START THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, SUCH THAT CHOPPY WATERS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON LAKE ERIE. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS NOW FOUND ON THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/THOMAS
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