039
FXUS61 KBUF 230518
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
118 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A COASTAL LOW RIDING UP
THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE OVERALL COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS LESSENING DAY BY
DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
CENTER OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN NY, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW OVER OUR AREA WILL ULTIMATELY BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER
COASTAL LOW BY LATER FRIDAY WHILE IT CHURNS TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY
BY THE TAIL END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL SET UP AN EVEN CHILLIER WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITHIN A
COLD, MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIP FALLING ON WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF A CONTINUED LIGHT
RAIN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO NORTH
COUNTRY, WHILE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NY BECOMES MORE SHOWERY
IN NATURE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS AND A CHILLY
WESTERLY BREEZE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
40S, WITH SOME VERY LOW 50S POSSIBLE FOR SELECT SPOTS. THIS IS SOME
20+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CAUSING THE WET WEATHER OF LATE
WILL TRACK TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, A WEAKER DISSIPATING LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STEADY RAIN
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD. AS THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON
AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY SOME. A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO HELP
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY AS WELL.
SHOWERS SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
SATURDAY THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MEMORIAL
DAY MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF A SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWER INLAND FROM
THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF STILL OFFERING SOME CHANCE OF DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN MOVES BACK IN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MAKES A CLOSE PASS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE NEW WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AS OF NOW FOR THE LONG TERM LOOK WARMER, BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. CHANGES IN TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BROAD, DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT, SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF
RAIN AND LOW CIGS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL FOCUS OVER WESTERN
NY THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE SHIELD OF MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL BE FOUND CENTERED ON LAKE ONTARIO AND ADJACENT AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LAKE. THE MISTY, LIGHT RAIN WILL REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NY. THE VFR CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS MORNING, THEN IFR TO LOW
END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING, THEN TEND TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. DESPITE THE DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE, ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CIGS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW END
MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW SPINNING JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES WESTERN NY TONIGHT BEFORE ULTIMATELY BECOMING ABSORBED BY A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW RIDING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO MODERATE WESTERLIES ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE EASTERN SHORES.
ELEVATED PERSISTENT WESTERLIES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT TIMES, HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SW
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JM
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