329
FXUS61 KBUF 231842
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
242 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED, WILL CARRY THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE EASTWARD TONIGHT, GIVING WAY TO MORE
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT, AND THEN REGION
WIDE SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY...THOUGH A DRYING
TREND WITH NOT AS COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVIDENT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND BY MEMORIAL DAY OUR REGION SHOULD RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS THE CIRCULATION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARING NEW ENGLAND, WITH A TROUGH CONTAINING
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC VORTICITY LINGERING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CENTERED UPON THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXTENDING INTO SW NYS IS BRINGING MORE SHOWERY
TYPE PRECIPITATION.
THIS TROUGH, EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE UPWARDS THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE CONVERGENCE UPON IT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT, WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
WNY, THOUGH BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED. WITHIN THESE BREAKS
SOME PATCHES OF HIGHER TERRAIN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TOMORROW SHOWERS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER VERY LOW. THOUGH NOT AS COOL, TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM. THOUGH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LINES UP WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS THEN TAPER OFF
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING TO END THE PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY, BUT
THERE IS A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM, BUT SOME GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD LESS RAIN. ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AND TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
REGION.
GUIDANCE IS HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM STILL AS A IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO START FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER. WHILE EACH
DAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF DRY TIME AS WELL WITH BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS A DECK OF MAINLY MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION, WITH SOME DRIER AIR SNEAKING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE BRINGING A MORE SHOWERY APPEARANCE TO THE PRECIPITATION.
A LINGERING TROUGH BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, COMBINED WITH STILL
AMBIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL AGAIN LOWER
CEILING HEIGHTS, TO HIGHER TERRAIN LIFR AND LOWER TERRAIN IFR/MVFR.
THESE LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE FOUND MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE 6Z
TO 14Z PORTION OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
BECOME A BIT FEWER TOWARDS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.
AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY RETURNS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RETURN THE
FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS, AND INTO THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BECOMING A BIT WEAKER WITH THE DEPARTING OF THE
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ020-040-
041.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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