146
FXUS61 KBUF 232336
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
736 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED, WILL CARRY THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE EASTWARD TONIGHT, GIVING WAY TO MORE
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT, AND THEN REGION
WIDE SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY...THOUGH A DRYING
TREND WITH NOT AS COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVIDENT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND BY MEMORIAL DAY OUR REGION SHOULD RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE UPWARDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THE CONVERGENCE UPON IT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, WITH AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR WNY, THOUGH BREAKS IN
THE ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED. WITHIN THESE BREAKS SOME PATCHES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY, SHOWERS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER VERY LOW. THOUGH NOT AS
COOL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM. THOUGH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LINES UP WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS THEN TAPER OFF
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING TO END THE PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY, BUT
THERE IS A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM, BUT SOME GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD LESS RAIN. ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AND TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
REGION.
GUIDANCE IS HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM STILL AS A IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO START FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER. WHILE EACH
DAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF DRY TIME AS WELL WITH BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A LINGERING TROUGH BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, COMBINED WITH STILL
AMBIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL AGAIN LOWER
CEILING HEIGHTS, TO HIGHER TERRAIN LIFR AND LOWER TERRAIN IFR/MVFR.
THESE LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE FOUND MOST WIDESPREAD FROM 06Z
TONIGHT THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY.
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BECOME A BIT FEWER TOWARDS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY RETURNS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS, AND INTO THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BECOMING A BIT WEAKER WITH THE DEPARTING OF THE
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ020-040-
041.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
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