519
FXUS61 KBUF 240520
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
120 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED, WILL CARRY THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE EASTWARD, GIVING WAY TO MORE
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
REGION WIDE SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY...THOUGH A
DRYING TREND WITH NOT AS COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVIDENT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND BY MEMORIAL DAY OUR REGION SHOULD RETURN TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE UPWARDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THE CONVERGENCE UPON IT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, WITH AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR WNY, THOUGH BREAKS IN
THE ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED. WITHIN THESE BREAKS SOME PATCHES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY, SHOWERS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER VERY LOW. THOUGH NOT AS
COOL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM. THOUGH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LINES UP WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS THEN TAPER OFF
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING TO END THE PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY, BUT
THERE IS A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM, BUT SOME GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD LESS RAIN. ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AND TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
REGION.
GUIDANCE IS HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM STILL AS A IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO START FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER. WHILE EACH
DAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF DRY TIME AS WELL WITH BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BROAD, DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY, WITH THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY
DROP VSBY TO MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR IN ANY MODERATE SHOWERS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND HIGHER
TERRAIN TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING
DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS, AND INTO THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW LATER
SATURDAY BECOMING A BIT WEAKER WITH THE DEPARTING OF THE STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ040-041.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
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