179
FXUS61 KBUF 241029
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
629 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD, SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW
ENGLAND TODAY, PRODUCING OCCASIONAL RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS MOVING
EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A BROAD AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER MAINE
TODAY, WITH MOIST, CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND
OVERCAST SKIES, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER
TODAY THAN RECENT DAYS.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH MID
MORNING, SUPPORTED BY THE REMNANTS OF AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION DRAPED
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN NY. WNW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LOW STRATUS IS INTERSECTING THE
HILLS. EXPECT A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS AS STRETCHING DEFORMATION CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN.
THIS AFTERNOON, MODEST DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH A COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE IN THE DPVA REGIME AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ORBITING
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THESE MECHANISMS WILL
COMBINE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, PEAKING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
THE EXIT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE, WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY OVERNIGHT. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WESTERN NY
MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING, WITH CLOUDS HOLDING EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAINE
SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL BE LESS SPARSE
SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUPPORTING A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE CROSSING EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING, A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES, MAINLY ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO CARRY PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
STRENGTH, TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT ATMOSPHERIC FEATURE,
MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. OVERALL AFTER AN INITIAL DRY START WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD TUESDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INTEGRATE
BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN LAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH IT WON'T BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PERIODS OF DRY TIME.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS WEEK, RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BROAD, DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY, WITH THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY
DROP VSBY TO MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR IN ANY MODERATE SHOWERS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING, AND HIGHER TERRAIN TRENDING
TOWARDS MVFR.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING
DRY OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WILL BE MAINLY
VFR, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM MAINE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER ON LAKE ONTARIO, BUT
STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MODERATE CHOP.
SUNDAY, WEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A MODERATE CHOP ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MEMORIAL DAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LESS WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page