433
FXUS61 KBUF 241746
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
146 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD, SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW
ENGLAND TODAY, PRODUCING OCCASIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS MOVING EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING MAINLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
EARLIER DRIZZLE AND MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND A PASSING TROUGH OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES
ONLY INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME UPPER
40S POSSIBLE FOR THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADKS.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL
ALSO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS WELL, FURTHER REDUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES AND AS ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT, BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
MOST OF THE AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE CROSSING EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING, A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES, MAINLY ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE LATER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO CARRY PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
STRENGTH, TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT ATMOSPHERIC FEATURE,
MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. OVERALL AFTER AN INITIAL DRY START WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD TUESDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INTEGRATE
BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN LAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH IT WON'T BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PERIODS OF DRY TIME.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS WEEK, RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A BROAD, DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY, WITH THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY
DROP VSBY TO MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR IN ANY MODERATE SHOWERS.
MVFR TO VFR CIGS, WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR
THIS EVENING, AND HIGHER TERRAIN TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING
DRY OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WILL BE MAINLY
VFR, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY, LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN. CIGS & VSBY DOWN TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM MAINE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
WESTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER ON LAKE ONTARIO, BUT STILL
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MODERATE CHOP.
SUNDAY, WEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A MODERATE CHOP ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MEMORIAL DAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LESS WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SW
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page