032
FXUS61 KBUF 250615
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
215 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY,
WILL ALLOW ONE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PIVOT ACROSS NEW YORK. AFTER
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING, EXPECT ONE MORE ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE, SUPPORTING
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER MEMORIAL DAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL
ALSO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS WELL, FURTHER REDUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES AND AS ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT, BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
MOST OF THE AREAS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE FINAL MID LEVEL TROUGH/AXIS OF MOISTURE AROUND AN ATLANTIC
COASTAL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS CANADA AND OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS, AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING INTO OUR REGION
COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MONDAY TO
MOST OF WNY, WITH THIS PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPANDING TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A CLOSED LOW WILL AGAIN ROTATE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS PERIOD, BUT
UNLIKE THIS PAST LOW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NOT NEARLY AS COLD, AND
WILL HAVE A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOTION.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
RAIN SHOWERS REACHING OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLUG
OF MOISTURE/RAIN MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY COUPLED WITH
THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEST INSTABILITY WITH THIS WARM FRONT
MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING ITS AXIS ACROSS OUR REGION
FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE HEALS OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY, THE FINAL DAY OF
THE MONTH. WILL FORECAST LOWER THAN NBM TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGH, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING, WILL
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS
MORNING, SUPPORTING A DRYING TREND AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITHIN THE SHOWERS, CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY WITHIN A HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER, THUS RESULTING IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM MAINE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
WESTERLY WINDS, PRODUCING A MODERATE CHOP ON BOTH LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY, WEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A MODERATE CHOP ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MEMORIAL DAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LESS WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page