587
FXUS61 KBUF 251052
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY,
WILL ALLOW ONE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PIVOT ACROSS NEW YORK. AFTER
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING, EXPECT ONE MORE ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE, SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER MEMORIAL DAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND SLIGHTLY
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AFTER THE DRY START THIS MORNING, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS NOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A SOUTHEASTWARD DROPPING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE
OF THE DAYS BEFORE IT BUT CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO TOPPLE OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH SHOWERS AND BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT SKIES. THE SMALL DIURNAL CURVE WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE LONG AWAITED RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY PATTERN WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. HERE, LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW
SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
ONTARIO AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS BUILDING INLAND FROM THE LAKES WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
DRIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
A NICE WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND LOW TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT
AND PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NY, THEN SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC, WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SUPPORTING
ONGOING RAIN CHANCES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME
ESTABLISHED AGAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK DOWN BELOW AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING, WILL
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS
MORNING, SUPPORTING A DRYING TREND AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITHIN THE SHOWERS, CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY WITHIN A HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER, THUS RESULTING IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY, WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 10 TO 15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS AND PRODUCE A
MODERATE CHOP ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LESS WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
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