654
FXUS61 KBUF 251600
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1200 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE TODAY, ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
CONCERT WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL BRING A CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN AN ADDED BOOST FROM SOME SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL
MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
TONIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR DRY WEATHER. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE WILL SEE ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW MAY NEGATE MUCH CLEARING OR ALLOW A LOW STRATUS DECK
TO FORM. THIS WILL IMPACT WHETHER WE SEE FOG FORMATION IN IN SPOTS
AND LOW TEMPS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE LONG AWAITED RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY PATTERN WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. HERE, LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW
SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
ONTARIO AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS BUILDING INLAND FROM THE LAKES WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
DRIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
A NICE WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND LOW TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT
AND PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NY, THEN SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC, WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SUPPORTING
ONGOING RAIN CHANCES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME
ESTABLISHED AGAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK DOWN BELOW AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TODAY, WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR WITHIN
SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A 'LOW'
CHANCE OF FOG AT KJHW AFTER 06Z, IF SKIES CLEAR AND REMAIN CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY, WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 10 TO 15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS AND PRODUCE A
MODERATE CHOP ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LESS WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR/EAJ
NEAR TERM...AR/EAJ
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...EAJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page